746
FXUS64 KHUN 241615
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE TO HIGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
-WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AL WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADDITION TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EAST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL PROMOTE MILD WAA VIA A BROAD AREA OF
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE L50S THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADDITION TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM M10S TO M20S. A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO WINDS OF 10-15KTS AT
THE SFC SHOULD PREVENT LARGE AMOUNTS OF COOLING OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD IN THE L40S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE PRECEDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY, REINFORCING RATHER DENSE CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC, SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE U50S-L60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND M60S-U60S ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS IN
THE L50S EXPECTED.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BEGINNING TO
INFLUENCE CONDITIONS IN THE TN VALLEY STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW TO
MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-60%) TO RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE (70-80%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
(45-55 KTS) IN PLACE, SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LARGELY MEAGER INSTABILITY (50-150 J/KG
SBCAPE) SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE THREAT FROM MATERIALIZING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AS WE RETURN IN A FAIRLY ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW AROUND 16Z AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-16 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AM/17
SHORT TERM....AM/17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RAD
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