977
FXUS64 KHUN 242335
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE TO HIGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
-WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DID LOWER DEW POINTS A LITTLE BIT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS SHOWING VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING MOISTURE TO REBOUND TOO MUCH EARLY THIS EVENING;
HOWEVER, MOISTURE (AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER) WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH, NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S (WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL) LINE UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DEW POINTS, NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE PRECEDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY, REINFORCING RATHER DENSE CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC, SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE U50S-L60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND M60S-U60S ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS IN
THE L50S EXPECTED.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BEGINNING TO
INFLUENCE CONDITIONS IN THE TN VALLEY STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW TO
MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-60%) TO RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE (70-80%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
(45-55 KTS) IN PLACE, SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LARGELY MEAGER INSTABILITY (50-150 J/KG
SBCAPE) SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE THREAT FROM MATERIALIZING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AS WE RETURN IN A FAIRLY ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO BOTH SITES AROUND 03Z
WITH SW WIND SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT 2000 FT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT 14Z AS CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED
AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....AM
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...HC
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