950
FXUS64 KHUN 250414
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
-WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THESE CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
A CONSIDERABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB. THUS, AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT DESPITE SOME OF THE LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVER, BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT IN WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF. THUS, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS (10-20%) ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE TO 50-80% BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. VERY HIGH (80-90%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 40-55 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY MEAGER, WITH
MEAN SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 50-150 J/KG. FACTORING THIS IN ALONG
WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR PROFILE, A COUPLE OF LOCALLY STRONG STORMS MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION. CONVECTION WILL WANE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DON'T
EXPECT ANY BIG CHANGES TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WE RETURN IN A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT. THUS, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
POST-FRONTAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO BOTH SITES AROUND 03Z
WITH SW WIND SHEAR OF 40 KTS AT 2000 FT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT 14Z AS CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED
AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC
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