138
FXUS64 KHUN 251046
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
446 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
-WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CURRENT 2 AM SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTERING IN TO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE NW. THESE CLOUDS CAN BE
TRACED BACK TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHING
ITS WAY EAST. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS PAIRED WITH SW SURFACE FLOW
PROMOTING WAA WILL MITIGATE OUR OVERNIGHT LOW WITH 6 AM TEMPS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY MORNING IN THE HIGH 30S
TO LOW 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE, SANDWICHED
BETWEEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST, STRONG SW FLOW WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, RETURNING OUR TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW
60S AND OUR DEW POINTS TO THE LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY. AS
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE MOISTENS THROUGH THE DAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUPPORTED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. VIRGA AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY ARRIVE BEFORE NOON WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO AROUND
30-50% BY 6PM, WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF THE TN RIVER. THE
OVERCAST CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO
NO THUNDER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE TO 50-80% BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. VERY HIGH (80-90%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 40-55 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY MEAGER, WITH
MEAN SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 50-150 J/KG. FACTORING THIS IN ALONG
WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR PROFILE, A COUPLE OF LOCALLY STRONG STORMS MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION. CONVECTION WILL WANE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DON'T
EXPECT ANY BIG CHANGES TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WE RETURN IN A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT. THUS, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
POST-FRONTAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MVFR
CEILING IN PLACE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AROUND 15Z. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ARRIVING FROM THE NNW
AROUND 00Z. FROM 00Z FORWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE
WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEADY
RAIN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE PRESENCE OF WIND SHEAR TOMORROW NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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