104
FXUS64 KHUN 252141
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
341 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
-WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR.
HIGHS MAY CLIMB YET ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET, THUS
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES APART AT
THIS TIME, INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE OF
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THOUGH SOME RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON AREA
RADARS, THIS ACTIVITY IS VIRGA THIS FAR SOUTH. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE SLOWED A BIT ON A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND
MERGING WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA ENE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER, MOST MODELS STILL SHOW FAIRLY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE STALLED FRONT
OVER KENTUCKY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. BOTH
THE 850 MB AND 500 MB JETS INCREASE MARKEDLY AS THAT OCCURS. THIS
PRODUCES STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY AHEAD OF THE NEWLY INVIGORATED
FRONT THAT PUSHES MORE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM AND MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEEAND MAYBE EXTREME NW ALABAMA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE A
BIT CONCERNING WHEN MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF FORCING AND THUS
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER, BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM ON THURSDAY,
RAINFALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THOUGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONG, ELEVATED CAPE
LOOKS VERY WEAK, UNTIL MAYBE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN
AND SHOULD MOVE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. A GOOD 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING SEEN IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE ELEVATED AND
WEAK NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY, DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.0 DEGREES AND THE STRONG SHEAR, NO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY LATER, DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DRIER CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DRIVES THE REINVIGORATED FRONT
INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL, HIGHS
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY
GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGHS DESPITE
SOME ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE WARM, BUT STILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
925 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN MODEL GUIDANCE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES. GIVEN SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOWN IN
MODELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED,
HIGHS SHOULD JUMP A BIT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT LEAST.
THIS MAY BE A TAD COOL GIVEN FACTORS JUST MENTIONED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
POST-FRONTAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER
18Z AND LIFT TO BECOME VFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHEAR
IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP AROUND 2000 FEET AFTER 03Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 KTS FROM 220
DEGREES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AROUND THEN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
REALLY INCREASE AFTER 6Z (6Z AT KMSL AND 9Z AT KHSV). THUS,
PREDOMINANT -RA WAS INCLUDED DURING THAT PERIOD ALONG WITH MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL. A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER VSBYS (IFR) AND TSRA WAS
INCLUDED AS WELL (KMSL BETWEEN 6Z AND 10Z/KHSV BETWEEN 9Z AND
13Z). MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER 13Z WITH MORE
WESTERLY WINDS AND -RA AT THE TERMINALS. WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KTS AFTER 13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW
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