074
FXUS64 KHUN 281542
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
942 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 942 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER,
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE REGION,
KEEPING A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY, SO ANY
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE DAY.
IN FACT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER) WITH DEW POINTS MERELY IN THE 40S.
WITH IT BEING MORE ON THE DRIER SIDE TODAY, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS WELL,
ALONG WITH A BIT WARMER LOWS THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY (MID TO
UPPER 40S). ALTHOUGH, WITH THESE FORECAST LOWS, DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE 40S, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SHELTERED AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM A PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
BRIEF AND SUBTLE RIDGING SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY THIS NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH, THERE LOOKS TO
BE A FEW RIPPLES OF VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THIS FLOW
PATTERN. ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE; THEREFORE,
MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS SHOWN
BY MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL, SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. DRY WEATHER (NO RAIN) WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. THEREFORE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NOT MUCH OF A COOLDOWN IS FORECAST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP US IN A WARM SECTORED AIRMASS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DETAILS ABOUT EMBEDDED WAVES/DISTURBANCES ARE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST PATTERN, BUT SMALL SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN COULD DRIVE OUR
CURRENTLY LOW CHANCE POPS UPWARD IF THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND STRETCHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHEN AND HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WE WILL SEE NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL START TO FAVOR MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BE SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE PLANS LATE NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 7TH THROUGH 11TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND
COLBERT COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH
7TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP.24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page