301
FXUS64 KHUN 010445
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS HOUR.
A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE ANALYSIS
EXTENDING ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
FEATURE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF FAIRLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE KANSAS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY AREA.
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THIS
EVENING. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED
ALONG THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS HAS BEEN OBSERVED FURTHER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE CLOSER TO THE
THE ACTUAL STATIONARY FRONT FURTHER NORTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE DISTURBANCE DUE EAST (THIS HAS BEEN
THE SATELLITE TREND AS WELL THIS EVENING) OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED AND THICKER CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AS THIS OCCURS. THOUGH
SOME BRIEF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
5000 OR 6000 FEET, SO SHOULD NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON INHIBITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THEIR LOWEST VALUES BETWEEN NOW AND
AROUND 2 AM WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MUCH OF THAT PERIOD,
DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAINLY PATCHY IN NATURE AND NEAR/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME
THICKER FOG COULD OCCUR IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF NE ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 2 AM OR SO AS STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TO FORM AHEAD OF ANOTHER PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THICKER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS, DESPITE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION,
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 75 DEGREES IN
MOST LOCATIONS. FORCING THOUGH WILL BE EXTREMELY WEAK OVER THE
AREA AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NEXT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MUCH
FURTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS THIS SECOND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
STRONGER FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. STRONG ENOUGH FORCING
MAY EXTEND JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER AROUND 9 PM AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 75 DEGREES, BUT WITHOUT THE CLOUD COVER WE
WOULD BE LIKELY TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ENE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT BUILDS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BREAK FROM THE CLOUD COVER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 73 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE AT LEAST IN RESPONSE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SSW FLOW BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BEGINS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC DOESN'T WANT TO BUDGE MUCH. DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. FOR
NOW KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WEAKENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA.
SBCAPE IS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, HELICITY IS WEAK AS
WELL IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MAINLY EXPECTING RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IF WE REALIZE CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING,
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 7TH THROUGH 11TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND
COLBERT COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH
7TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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