739
FXUS64 KHUN 011606
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1006 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS COMING WEEK. A LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MOST DAYS.
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END
OF THE WEEK (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S).
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY PUSHED INTO MOORE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS IN
PLACE NEAR THIS FRONT, EXPECT SOME VERY HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS
PRIMARILY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ENDING UP IN MOST CASES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, BUT DO NOT SEE
A BIG INCREASE IN COVERAGE OR THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER NEAR THIS
FRONT IN MODEL GUIDANCE UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT INTO
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THUS, NOT EXPECTING A BIG
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND WHERE THE ACTUAL COLD THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. MAINLY EXPECTING LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER WITH WARMING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH.
THAT BEING SAID, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
MOST AREAS ALREADY AT 10 AM, HIGHS EVEN IN COOLER LOCATIONS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE (THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER - UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 MORE LIKELY THERE). WARMER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75
AND 80 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS CULLMAN COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALMOST
DUE EAST IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE AND DEPTH OF CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE CONCENTRATED AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS NORTH
OF EVEN OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES. HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FORCING ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE OF A HINDRANCE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE.
SOME SUNSHINE MAY BREAK THROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STILL BE NICE, BUT A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY, CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, DESPITE SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WEDGING (COOLER
TEMPERATURES) ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WOULD
SETUP A GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WOULD LIKELY BE THE RESULT, WITH
HIGHS STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FURTHER WEST.
THIS CHANGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN ATTENDANT
COLD FROM EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT IS NOT AS STRONG, BUT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BE FROM THE SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, EVEN INTO NE
ALABAMA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE TIMES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC DOESN'T WANT TO BUDGE MUCH. DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. FOR
NOW KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WEAKENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA.
SBCAPE IS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, HELICITY IS WEAK AS
WELL IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MAINLY EXPECTING RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IF WE REALIZE CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5 KTS. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
FRONT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 8TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND
COLBERT COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH
8TH THROUGH 9TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP
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