805
FXUS64 KHUN 012053
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 252 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS COMING WEEK. A LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MOST DAYS.
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END
OF THE WEEK (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S).
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 75 DEGREES AS FAR NORTH AS AREAS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, IT MIGHT KEEP HIGHS FROM
REACHING THE UPPER 70S IN TENNESSEE. THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHATTANOOGA, TN THROUGH THE HUNTSVILLE, AL
AREA INTO JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS, MS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST BY MODELS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS STILL CONFINE THE STRONGEST AND MORE
CONCENTRATED FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME WEAKER FORCING
WITH MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS SOUTHWARD. LOW (15 TO 25%)
CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WERE KEPT FROM NBM TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE
THOUGH. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THIS FAR
SOUTH, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME
THICKER, ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE OF A HINDRANCE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE.
SOME SUNSHINE MAY BREAK THROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STILL BE NICE, BUT A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY, CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA, DESPITE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. NBM PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW MODELS WANT TO LINGER VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BUT KEEPING WITH NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WEDGING (COOLER
TEMPERATURES) ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WOULD
SETUP A GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WOULD LIKELY BE THE RESULT, WITH
HIGHS STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FURTHER WEST.
THIS CHANGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN ATTENDANT
COLD FROM EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT IS NOT AS STRONG, BUT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BE FROM THE SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, EVEN INTO NE
ALABAMA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE TIMES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC DOESN'T WANT TO BUDGE MUCH. DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. FOR
NOW KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WEAKENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA.
SBCAPE IS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, HELICITY IS WEAK AS
WELL IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MAINLY EXPECTING RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IF WE REALIZE CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
MAINLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CIGS TODAY, BEFORE LOWERING A BIT CLOSE TO
AROUND 6000 FEET TOWARDS 6Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO ABOVE 10,000 FEET
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME, WE BELIEVE ANY -RA WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 8TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND
COLBERT COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH
8TH THROUGH 9TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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