281
FXUS64 KHUN 021631
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AL-TN
BORDER.
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO MEDIUM (50-60%) FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AS OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF A FLAT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT WILL SPREAD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A LIGHT-
MODERATE SSE FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR AND A STRONG HIGH THAT WILL SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH TIME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (EMBEDDED WITHIN WNW FLOW ALOFT) IS
PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
NEVERTHELESS, WEAK LIFT RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SUPPORTED
A VAST COVERAGE OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE DECAYING LOW NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN TN AND INTO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF
SOUTHEASTERN KY. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
OUR CWFA WILL BE REINFORCED BY COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE MAJORITY OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT
SHOULD EVAPORATE INTO VIRGA BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN, WE
WILL RETAIN A 10-20% POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AL-TN BORDER. DUE
TO AN OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS (THAT SHOULD NOT BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON), HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE FROM
THE M-U 60S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE L-M 70S IN THE VALLEY. DRY
BUT MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AS
SSE WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NEW LEE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, WITH LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT TO OUR EAST, WE WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE CHANGE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING (U40S-L50S IN THE EAST AND MID 50S IN THE WEST).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN INTENSIFYING 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE MO
VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A MODERATELY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME, TO THE SOUTH OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. AS THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH (RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD AIR
DAMMING TO OUR EAST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD) BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
RETREAT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE L-M 50S REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION MAY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OF
RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE U50S-L60S), LACK OF A SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING MECHANISM WILL PRECLUDE POPS HIGHER THAN 10%
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
U70S-L80S BY WEDNESDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE
M-U 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER THE SW ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, KEEPING WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL HELP
KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S - WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL FAVOR AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW FAR EAST A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK. WITH
THAT IN MIND, WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS STARTING
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF I-65. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING TROUGHING AND A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH
CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY RESULTING IN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HELD TO OUR
WEST, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 8TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT
COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 8TH
THROUGH 9TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH
OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...HC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page