636
FXUS64 KHUN 041629
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1029 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO MEDIUM/HIGH (50-80%) FROM
SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY, NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THESE BREAKS THAT ARE FORMING IN THE CLOUDS
WILL CREATE SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE BREEZY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON. SOME PARTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD, WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MAKE A
RUN AT HIGH A RECORD HIGH LEVELS -- INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT IN A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE GULF REGION. STRONGER
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO CREATE LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CONVECTION, HIGHS WILL STILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD HIGH LEVELS IN THE LOWER 80S. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY WANE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER, MUCH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-80%) ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. GIVEN PWATS AROUND
1.3", LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY MODEST FOR THIS EVENT, WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KTS. HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION CAN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME MODEST SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND A
COUPLE LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS.
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOCATION THURSDAY FRIDAY
HUNTSVILLE 64/1961 81/1910 60/1951 82/1910
MUSCLE SHOALS 65/1961 86/1908 64/1956 82/1910
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC LOW UP IN THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WARM, TROPICAL AIR WILL STREAM INTO
THE REGION SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY (70-80%) AND DESPITE THE CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 80S. THIS COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD TEMP. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODELS
ARE UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT. POPS WILL DIP IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP ON SUNDAY TO HIGH CHANCES
(70%) AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES ACROSS THIS STALLED OUT FRONT. HIGHS
WILL BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY, ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY 3/7 RECORD HIGHS: HSV - 82 (1956), MSL - 83 (1934)
TUESDAY 3/10 RECORD HIGHS: HSV - 79 (2009), MSL - 82 (1925)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, REMAINING JUST ABOVE MVFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWERED CEILINGS PUSH INTO THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON MARCH 11TH AND 12TH. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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