004
FXUS64 KHUN 052357
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
557 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1004 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR.
- HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
(ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL).
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST
REASONING SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING, AS PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SW WIND (GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH) WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE M70S-L80S. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AL, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE 5-10% RANGE FOR THIS
REASON. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING, STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, AND THIS
ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL LEAD TO A
WARM NIGHT FEATURING LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY (BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20-30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT), AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
RIM OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, A DAMPENING 500-MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A RELATED/DECAYING SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL INTO WESTERN OH BY
0Z. AT THE SURFACE, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF THE DECAYING LOW AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
BERMUDA RIDGE. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR
TODAY (PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AL, WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER), LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM AND INDICATIONS OF A
STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 5-10 KFT WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. IN
SPITE OF A SCATTERED-BROKEN COVERAGE OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS,
AFTERNOON INSOLATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
M70S-L80S.
AFTER A TEMPORARY DIMINISHING TREND IN SURFACE WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS
EASTERN CO BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ACROSS OUR REGION, REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY OCCUR
PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
(PARTICULARLY IN WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD, WITH LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (INITIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS) WILL SHEAR APART AS IT EJECTS QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
WESTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW (INITIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN KS) WILL TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA AND
DECAY AS A SECONDARY LOW EVOLVES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KS/NORTHWESTERN OK AND DEEPENS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP-LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN THE
BROADENING WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS IT SPREADS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR APPEARS SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK TO RAISE CONCERN FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION, DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE L-M 60S (COUPLED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE M70S-L80S), WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE DEEPER
CELLS. WITH INSTABILITY PREDICTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BETWEEN 0-3Z
SATURDAY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER WARM/HUMID NIGHT IN
STORE (FEATURING LOWS IN THE L-M 60S).
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOWS TRAILING COLD FRONT (I.E. FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION). WITH TIME, AN
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN SQUALL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COLD FRONT (POTENTIALLY
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON). ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOWER/MID-TROPOPSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER (SUPPORTING LESS CAPE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY), MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS
POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN, STRONG-LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST IMPACTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA
SATURDAY EVENING, BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DECELERATE
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN, REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH
BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL SHIFT FROM STRONG
STORMS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (WITH PWAT VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE
1.4-1.6" RANGE). DUE TO CLOUDS/AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY (M-U 70S), WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN
THE UPPER 50S. WITH CLOUDS AND DECENT SHOWER CHANCES, IT'LL BE A
BIT COOLER SUN, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THESE READINGS ARE
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS. WE GO BACK
TO DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME DURING SATURDAY NIGHT; PLEASE DO NOT
FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCKS ONE HOUR FORWARD BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE
DAY.
THE ABOVE NOTED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER
SUN NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SIMILAR HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S, AND HIGHS ON MON IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.
FOR ONCE, THE WARMER AIR SHOULD "WIN" AS WE GO INTO ANOTHER WORK
WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL NOT BE
MOVING MUCH, THUS A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
KEEP A FEED OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND A BIT MORE SUN, AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROPRIATELY
RESPOND. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONE AGAIN SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S. STANDING RECORD HIGHS OF 79/2009 AND 82/1925 AT HUNTSVILLE
AND MUSCLE SHOALS MAY BE ECLIPSED. VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON/TUE NIGHT, ONLY FALLING INTO LOWER 60S. RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THIS TIME FRAME COULD ALSO BE
EXCEEDED.
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1.5" COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. SW WINDS OF 5-15KT EARLY IN
THE TAF SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY, THEN FROM THE SW AT
10-20KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESULTANT HIGHER INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON. GIVEN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING SOME PRECIP FORMING, HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA IN A PROB30
GROUP LATE IN THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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