936
FXUS64 KHUN 060552
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1152 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR.
- HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
OCCUR (ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL).
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP OF A TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING
EAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. THIS AND THE MAIN POLAR
JET STAYING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART RESULT IN WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS BY
SUNDAY ARE AROUND 63/42 FOR REFERENCE. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BASIN. AN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ROUNDING THIS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
RESULTED IN VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MARCH, WITH HIGHS TODAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
MILD, BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST WITH
LIGHT SE WINDS.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S
(VERSUS MID 50S EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON). THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES RISING INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HELICITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 100 M/S, THUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THOSE WEAK PARAMETERS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.2 TO 1.5", THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN FRI EVENING WITH A LOSS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MORE LIFT, THUS
THERE SHOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OUR MORE WESTERN AREA. WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGHS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO UPPER
70S EAST. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES TO FRI BUT STRONGER SHEAR VALUES OF
100-150 M/S COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVER SO SLOWLY
NEARS FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LOW RISK FOR PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW SPOTS OR MINOR FLOODING. WITH ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGH RAIN RATES WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE
FLOODING ISSUES; WHICH DOES NOT LOOK VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
REMINDER: THIS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IS WHEN WE RETURN TO DAYLIGHT
SAVINGS TIME. PLEASE DO NOT FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCKS FORWARD ONE
HOUR BEFORE RETIRING SAT EVENING. GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUING. GIVEN MORE SHOWERS, EVEN "COOLER" CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. AND DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH AND WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS, SOME MINOR
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MOST GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT HAS A HARD
TIME PUSHING VERY FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
EAST CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT GRADUALLY PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA CLOUDY AND
CONTENDING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BELOW RECORD HIGHS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE (1000 TO 2000
J/KG) ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, BUT MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LUCKILY, WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE 10,000 AND
HELICITY IS VERY WEAK IN GUIDANCE RIGHT NOT, SO THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IS ANY
SEVERE STORMS DID OCCUR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND THE LACK OF HELICITY IN
PLACE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AND REDUCE ITS COVERAGE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER LIKELY, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S PRIMARILY.
MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
VERSUS NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THEN. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
SOME POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AS A RESULT MAY REACH 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT
TIMES (THOUGH PRIMARILY MOSTLY CLOUDY) COULD HIT THE LOWER 80S.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMETIME LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE
NORTHEAST STATES PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR LOOKS TO SETUP AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD SPELL A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LIGHT SE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS MAINLY
OVER NW AL AFTER SUNRISE, WHICH WAS CONTINUED FOR KMSL. WINDS IN
THE COURSE OF THE DAY SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE S-SW IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. NEWER GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING THIS TREND, SO OPTED TO KEEP A PROB30 THIS ISSUANCE; AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION SHOWERS AS A TEMPO OR A PREVAILING
ITEM. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN THE EVENING WITH VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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