892
FXUS64 KHUN 061100
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A
FEW SPOTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO COOL
MUCH MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SINCE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AS WELL. THERE MAY BE INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG, BUT FOG IS
MORE LIKELY IN SHELTERED AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY USHERING IN AMPLE MOISTURE UP FROM
THE GULF, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL AID IN INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OR SO. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
OR LESS (NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS). IN
ADDITION, LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER LOW (5-6.8
DEG C/KM) AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAX OUT BETWEEN
1.2-1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR PWATS, THESE VALUES ARE GREATER
THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN LOOKING AT SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
FROM BIRMINGHAM. THUS, ANY STORMS TODAY WILL MORE LIKELY BE
"GENERAL" THUNDERSTORMS BUT BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS INSTANCES OF NUISANCE FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE A WARMER DAY THAN
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN FRI EVENING WITH A LOSS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MORE LIFT, THUS
THERE SHOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OUR MORE WESTERN AREA. WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGHS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO UPPER
70S EAST. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES TO FRI BUT STRONGER SHEAR VALUES OF
100-150 M/S COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVER SO SLOWLY
NEARS FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LOW RISK FOR PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW SPOTS OR MINOR FLOODING. WITH ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGH RAIN RATES WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE
FLOODING ISSUES; WHICH DOES NOT LOOK VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
REMINDER: THIS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IS WHEN WE RETURN TO DAYLIGHT
SAVINGS TIME. PLEASE DO NOT FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCKS FORWARD ONE
HOUR BEFORE RETIRING SAT EVENING. GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUING. GIVEN MORE SHOWERS, EVEN "COOLER" CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. AND DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH AND WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS, SOME MINOR
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MOST GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT HAS A HARD
TIME PUSHING VERY FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
EAST CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT GRADUALLY PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA CLOUDY AND
CONTENDING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BELOW RECORD HIGHS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE (1000 TO 2000
J/KG) ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, BUT MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LUCKILY, WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE 10,000 AND
HELICITY IS VERY WEAK IN GUIDANCE RIGHT NOT, SO THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IS ANY
SEVERE STORMS DID OCCUR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND THE LACK OF HELICITY IN
PLACE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AND REDUCE ITS COVERAGE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER LIKELY, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S PRIMARILY.
MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
VERSUS NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THEN. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
SOME POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AS A RESULT MAY REACH 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT
TIMES (THOUGH PRIMARILY MOSTLY CLOUDY) COULD HIT THE LOWER 80S.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMETIME LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE
NORTHEAST STATES PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR LOOKS TO SETUP AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD SPELL A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BY THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) WILL
RETURN FOR NORTH ALABAMA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS AND VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS
WELL. RAIN CHANCES THEN DWINDLE THIS EVENING, WITH NO RAIN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THEY'LL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW CIGS, DOWN TO MVFR, ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 10Z TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN CHANCES APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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