835
FXUS64 KHUN 070456
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- LOW CHANCES (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SNAKE IT WAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND THROUGH
NORTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER, SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 500 J/KG AND 2-6 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5
DEGREES/KM ARE ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO STILL DEVELOP.
LUCKILY, WIND SHEAR IS STILL ALMOST NON-EXISTENT (LESS THAN 20
KNOTS). SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE,
EXPECT WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP, PRIMARILY EAST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 3 TO 6 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE IN
PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA, WHERE DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY AT
0 TO 3 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS INCLUDING ALBERTVILLE AND NEAR
THE SCOTTSBORO AREA IN ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AROUND 2 AM FROM WEST TO EAST, WINDS MAY BE CALM
UNTIL THEN EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF NE ALABAMA. EXPECT
THIS BRIEF PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TO GO AWAY AS WINDS PICK UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS DEVELOP A LOW STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AROUND 2 OR 3 AM AND MOVE THAT AREA OF CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS PRETTY WARM,
PRIMARILY ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LESSEN NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AS
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THOSE AREAS IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BETTER
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NEWER GUIDANCE IS A BIT
SLOWER MOVING THE STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO NW
ALABAMA, MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS
ALREADY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE AND UPSTREAM, DESPITE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY STILL
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG BY NOON, MAYBE HIGHER EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER OVERALL IN NEW
GUIDANCE (WIDESPREAD 30-45 KT VALUES) BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HELICITY IS NOT GREAT, BUT MAY
INCREASE TO 200 M2/S2 BY THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR
FORECAST, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND 3 PM
IN NW AL AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE TO OUR WSW, KEEPING THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF
LOW CLOUDS DON'T MATERIALIZE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, THEN INSTABILITY
MAY BE HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF I-65, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED A BIT BY MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN NW ALABAMA. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SEVERE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THAT OCCURRING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN IN NEWEST GUIDANCE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PWATS (1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES) REMAIN HIGH AND VERY STRONG
DEEP FORCING IS SHOWN WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ON TOP OF EARLIER RAINFALL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
DOESN'T DEVELOP MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THIS OCCURS, BUT
MAYBE JUST ENOUGH 50 TO 200 J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL WITH HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 M2/S2.
THUS, CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER (AGAIN
DAMAGING WINDS OR A VERY BRIEF TORNADO) UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 9 AM.
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. BUT FORCING LOOKS
TOO WEAK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT SLOWLY NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG IT . WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT
ENDS UP WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN INSTABILITY AND WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION LOOKS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHEAR WILL BE BORDERLINE, BUT POSSIBLY JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITY LOOKS VERY WEAK, BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT BAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT
TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MORE UNUSUAL TREND OF THE WARM AIR WINNING OUT
CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HEADS NORTHWARD.
WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING AND DESPITE GOOD RAIN CHANCES, LOWS
THEN SHOULD MAINLY RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS, LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. WITH DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWER END
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREA. OTHERWISE THE WARMER TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AT THE MOMENT; AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN (TROUGHING WEST
AND RIDGING EAST) WILL BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN AS WE GO
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME PART OF
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SET TO FORM OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW
EVENTUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REJOIN THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM, AND
GET EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
NORTH OF HERE ON MON/TUE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MIXED WITH MORE PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WED NIGHT.
THIS FRONT APPEARS WILL MOVE TO THE SE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE DAY THU. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
ONE MORE WARM DAY WED WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK TO AROUND 80. THIS
TIME, THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMING TO AND END WED NIGHT, AS
COLDER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL CHILL
INTO THE 40S. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CHILLY CONDITIONS
RETURN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A BIT
MILDER FRIDAY THE 13TH WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
AT LEAST BKN CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 2Z
AT BOTH TERMINALS. A PROB30 FOR -TSRA DIRECTLY AFFECT EACH
TERMINAL WAS ADDED (KMSL FROM 00Z TO 01Z AND KHSV FROM 00Z TO
03Z). EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 8Z AT KMSL
AND 9Z AT KHSV. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z, A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA WAS INCLUDED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page