996
FXUS64 KHUN 071110
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 425 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NOW FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW AL AROUND
2PM OR SO. AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
TO 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT SUPER STRONG, GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, RANGING BETWEEN 5.5-6.5
DEGC/KM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
LOOK TO STAY BELOW 150 M2/S2 AS WELL, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW, BUT THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HAIL OR TORNADOES OCCURRING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, AS MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE, THESE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. MAKE SURE TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. ALSO, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED
ROADS!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LESSEN NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
AS CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THOSE AREAS IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BETTER
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NEWER GUIDANCE IS A BIT
SLOWER MOVING THE STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO NW
ALABAMA, MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY
IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE AND UPSTREAM, DESPITE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY STILL
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG BY NOON, MAYBE HIGHER EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER OVERALL IN NEW
GUIDANCE (WIDESPREAD 30-45 KT VALUES) BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HELICITY IS NOT GREAT, BUT MAY
INCREASE TO 200 M2/S2 BY THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR
FORECAST, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND 3 PM
IN NW AL AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE TO OUR WSW, KEEPING THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF LOW
CLOUDS DON'T MATERIALIZE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, THEN INSTABILITY MAY
BE HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-65,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED A BIT BY MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN NW ALABAMA. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THAT
OCCURRING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN IN NEWEST GUIDANCE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PWATS (1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES) REMAIN HIGH AND VERY STRONG
DEEP FORCING IS SHOWN WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ON TOP OF EARLIER RAINFALL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
DOESN'T DEVELOP MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THIS OCCURS, BUT
MAYBE JUST ENOUGH 50 TO 200 J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL WITH HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 M2/S2.
THUS, CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER (AGAIN
DAMAGING WINDS OR A VERY BRIEF TORNADO) UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 9 AM.
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. BUT FORCING LOOKS
TOO WEAK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT SLOWLY NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ALABAMA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG IT . WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT
ENDS UP WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN INSTABILITY AND WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION LOOKS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHEAR WILL BE BORDERLINE, BUT POSSIBLY JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITY LOOKS VERY WEAK, BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT BAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT
TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
UPDATED AT 425 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
[425AM UPDATE] - SPC HAS RECENTLY OUTLOOKED A PORTION OF OUR
LOCAL AREA IN A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK CLOSELY. CHECK BACK
FOR FORECAST UPDATES, ESPECIALLY AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER IN THE
COMING DAYS. CONTINUE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE AN EMERGENCY
PLAN IN PLACE, AS WE HAVE OFFICIALLY ENTERED OUR SPRING SEVERE
SEASON!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MORE UNUSUAL TREND OF THE WARM AIR WINNING OUT
CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HEADS
NORTHWARD. WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING AND DESPITE GOOD RAIN
CHANCES, LOWS THEN SHOULD MAINLY RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S. AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WITH DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWER END RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREA. OTHERWISE THE WARMER
TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AT THE MOMENT; AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN (TROUGHING
WEST AND RIDGING EAST) WILL BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN AS
WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DISTURBANCE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
BECOME PART OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SET TO FORM OVER THE BAJA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REJOIN THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM, AND GET EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO
THE APPALACHIANS IN THE LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
NORTH OF HERE ON MON/TUE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MIXED WITH MORE PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT. THIS FRONT APPEARS WILL MOVE TO THE SE ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY THU. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ONE MORE WARM DAY WED WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK TO AROUND 80. THIS
TIME, THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMING TO AND END WED NIGHT,
AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
CHILL INTO THE 40S. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CHILLY
CONDITIONS RETURN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. A BIT MILDER FRIDAY THE 13TH WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN OVERSPREADING INTO NORTH ALABAMA AT
ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS WERE REPORTED AT MSL, WITH HSV SLATED TO DROP
TO MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE COME THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS.
THUS, LOWER VIS IS FORECAST IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW CIGS WILL
ALSO LARGELY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NW AL. MVFR
CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING, WITH CIGS
LOWERING EVEN FURTHER TO IFR TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING AS WELL. WHILE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHES TO
OUR SOUTHEAST, CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26/KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26/RSB
AVIATION...26
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