095
FXUS64 KHUN 142318
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1PM SUNDAY THROUGH 1AM
MONDAY FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 45MPH.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1". DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TONIGHT, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. AS THIS
HAPPENS, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH A NOTICEABLY SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LOCALLY AS THIS
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND NO RISK FOR FOG.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY A DEEPENING LOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW EVENING. AS THIS FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST, EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN GUSTY NON-
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 35-45MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FROM 1PM SUNDAY
THROUGH 1AM MONDAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE EVENING,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR AIDED BY
INCREASING LLJ WINDS TO 50-70KTS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TOMORROW EVENING, EXPECT TO SEE AN INTENSIFYING LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK, BUT A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WOULD EXIST ALONG ANY BOWING OR RIGHT-MOVING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS
MAXIMIZED. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHER TORNADO RISK CONTINUES
TO BE WEAKER SFC BASED INSTABILITY THAT WOULD WORK TO LIMIT
STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND DEEPER MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DID EXPAND AND INCREASE TORNADO PROBABILITIES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DRIVEN BY THE RISK FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE QLCS. WHETHER THESE CELLS WILL CONGEAL
WITH THE QLCS BEFORE OR AFTER THEY CROSS THE MS/AL STATE LINE IS
UNCERTAIN, HENCE THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG (EF-2+) TORNADOES.
WITH THE LIMITED SFC INSTABILITY, SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A LOW RISK
AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT CONSIDERING
WE ARE STILL ROUGHLY 36 HOURS OUT. WE EXPECT STORMS TO ENTER NW
AL BETWEEN 8-10PM AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST, EXITING NE AL BY AROUND
3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES
ESPECIALLY IF MODELS ARE UNDER REPRESENTING THE FORWARD SPEED OF
THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS. FLOODING RISKS REMAIN LOW
GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS, BUT BRIEF HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING AND RIGHT AFTER HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND COLDER AIR QUICKLY
RUSHES INTO THE AREA, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS, SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING TO
0.1", ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS BUT HAVE NO CURRENT PLANS TO ISSUE ANY
WINTER WEATHER RELATED HEADLINES.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. BE
SURE TO BUNDLE UP AND PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND
PIPES!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS GRADUALLY EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A REMNANT
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A LENGTHY SURFACE RIDGE (POSITIONED TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH/EAST) FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS OUR REGION MAY BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BAND SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MAY NOT REACH OUR CWFA
AT ALL AND REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR NORTH. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE L-M 40S ON
TUESDAY INTO THE L-M 70S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING, NEAR 40 KTS BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL. WIND
GUSTS PICK UP LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 KTS, BUT CURRENT TAF REPRESENTS MOST PREVAILING WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. A SEVERE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE AREA JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF
60-70 KTS IN THE LATE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...30
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