433
FXUS64 KHUN 150252
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1PM SUNDAY AND WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH 7AM MONDAY FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45MPH.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN). DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA/NORTHWESTERN MO. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOWER-BASED STRATUS CLOUDS
BY SUNRISE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 50S.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN AT A CONSIDERABLE RATE AND ACQUIRE A NEUTRAL-SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MO VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH THE
RELATED SURFACE CYCLONE PREDICTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN IL BY 0Z.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A RAPIDLY CONTRACTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP-MIXING LAYER, SSE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE (WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH)
OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS SET TO
GO INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 PM. OTHERWISE, EXPECT AN ABUNDANT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO OUR THOUGHTS FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
AND CAMS STILL SUGGEST THAT A THIN BUT POTENT FRONTAL QLCS WILL
ENTER THE CWFA AROUND 9-10 PM BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD IN
A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW AND EXITING BY 1-2 AM. A NARROW AXIS OF 58-60F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY THIS SHOULD ONLY YIELD CAPE OF 400-600 J/KG. REGARDLESS, WITH
A RAPIDLY IMPROVING KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS (SOME PERHAPS IN THE 70-80 MPH RANGE) AND A FEW TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS.
STRONG ADVECTION OF A COLD, ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND WITH A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED, THE TRAILING EDGE MAY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO EVOLVE DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS
WITH THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY (ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN-FAVORED REGIONS OF NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN TN), AND
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES MAY REACH 0.25-0.4". HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
CAA AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER, WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO NOT
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A HARD
FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE L-M 20S), AND WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE L-M
40S ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER (COMPARED TO
MONDAY NIGHT), LOWS WILL LIKELY STILL FALL INTO THE 25-30F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO INDUCE LIGHT SW FLOW), A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A ZONE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
WARM PROGRESSIVELY INTO THE U70S-L80S BY SATURDAY, AND THIS (ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY) MAY
SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING, NEAR 40 KTS BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL. WIND
GUSTS PICK UP LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 KTS, BUT CURRENT TAF REPRESENTS MOST PREVAILING WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. A SEVERE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE AREA JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF
60-70 KTS IN THE LATE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...30
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