819
FXUS64 KHUN 150614
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
114 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 AM
MONDAY FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-45MPH.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN). DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA/NORTHWESTERN MO. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOWER-BASED STRATUS CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN BY SUNRISE, AND RESULT IN
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 50S.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN AT A CONSIDERABLE RATE AND ACQUIRE A NEUTRAL-SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MO VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH THE
RELATED SURFACE CYCLONE PREDICTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN IL BY 0Z.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A RAPIDLY CONTRACTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP-MIXING LAYER, SSE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE (WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH)
OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM - 7 AM MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT AN ABUNDANT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE L-M 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO OUR THOUGHTS FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
AND CAMS STILL SUGGEST THAT A THIN BUT POTENT FRONTAL QLCS WILL
ENTER THE CWFA AROUND 9-11 PM BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD IN
A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW AND EXITING BY 2-3 AM. A NARROW AXIS OF 58-60F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER), BUT GIVEN
THE TIME OF DAY THIS SHOULD ONLY YIELD CAPE OF 400-600 J/KG.
REGARDLESS, WITH A RAPIDLY IMPROVING KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT,
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS (SOME PERHAPS IN THE 70-80 MPH RANGE)
AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS.
STRONG ADVECTION OF A COLD, ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND WITH A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED, THE TRAILING EDGE MAY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO INITIATE ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY PRIOR TO 12Z AND EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH. A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY (ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN- FAVORED
REGIONS OF NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN TN), AND ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES MAY REACH 0.25-0.4". HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF CAA AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER, WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE L-M 20S), AND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE L-M 40S ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER (COMPARED TO MONDAY
NIGHT) DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS, LOWS WILL
LIKELY STILL FALL INTO THE 25-30F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST INDUCING LIGHT SW FLOW), A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A ZONE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE EAST OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM PROGRESSIVELY INTO THE U70S-L80S BY
SATURDAY, AND THIS (ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY) MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM NOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE EVENING.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ROUNDING THE MAIN LOW WILL RESULT
IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE TAF. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE PRESENTLY ARE BELOW LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA, BUT
WILL REACH IT TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN LESSEN
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT THIS EVENING AGAIN WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAF. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
IMPACTING KMSL IN THE EARLY EVENING, AND KHSV A FEW HOURS LATER.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF WILL BE REDUCED WHEN SHOWERS
COMMENCE SUN EVENING. VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR APPEAR LIKELY,
WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...RSB
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