125
FXUS64 KHUN 152017
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN). DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
OUR PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER, HIRES, RAPIDLY
EVOLVING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. THEREFORE, WE ARE NOW MONITORING A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE QLCS, WHICH WILL
INCREASE OUR OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IF REALIZED. WE WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE, WE'VE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. OUR WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY. BE SURE TO USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS
OR DRIVING AS THESE INCREASED GUSTS WILL CONTINUE BOTH AHEAD OF AS
WELL AS AFTER THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PUSHES THROUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A MEDIUM-HIGH RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW- MEDIUM CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
DYNAMICALLY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (120 KT) PUSHES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE LLJ WILL ALSO
BE STRONG, REACHING 80-90 KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WAA AND INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. DUE TO THE COLD FRONTS
NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL (ENTERING NW AL AROUND 8 PM), THIS DIURNAL
SUPPORT WILL DROP OFF AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, MODELS DEPICT OUR ENVIRONMENT REMAINING MOIST
ADIABATIC WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KM WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
AS WELL AS MESOCYCLONE DEPTH. IN TURN, TORNADOES REMAIN A LOW
THREAT DESPITE SUPPORT FROM STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IF A TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE RELATIVELY
WEAK (LESS THAN EF2) AND SHORT-LIVED. SHEAR, HOWEVER, WILL BE
ABUNDANT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~50-60 KTS AHEAD OF THE
LINE. SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PARALLEL WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM, SO WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE STORM MODE TO BE
LINEAR AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. STORM MOTION
IS FORECAST TO BE 60-70 KTS, SO THIS QLCS WILL BE VERY RAPIDLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MONITORING
IF THERE COULD BE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, OUR
TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE AND OUR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EARLIER.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, A NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND THREAT
WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN FOR THIS PERIOD. BE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE, OUTDOOR
OBJECTS AND USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, VERY COLD AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS- RESULTING IN LINGERING RAINFALL
TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO, NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, HIGHER AMOUNTS
(UP TO 0.5") HAVE BEEN THE TREND THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS IN HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND FAR NE AL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TRACE ACCUMULATIONS IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SNOWFALL AND IT SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG CAA WILL LIKELY
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 30S, WHICH IS AROUND 20-30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS. WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH THROUGH ALL OF
NORTHERN AL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS IN STORE ON
TUESDAY AS HIGHS ARE LIMITED TO THE 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND
CHILLS, HOWEVER, WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER CONTRARY TO THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA RETURNS TO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST INDUCING LIGHT SW FLOW), A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A ZONE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE EAST OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM PROGRESSIVELY INTO THE U70S-L80S BY
SATURDAY, AND THIS (ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY) MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY, SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO MVFR AROUND 01Z AND 04Z AT
KMSL AND KHSV, RESPECTIVELY, DUE TO A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS HIGH WINDS TO
THE AREA. THIS WAS TREATED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AND SOUTHERLY WIND
SHEAR OF 50 KTS AT 2000FT WAS ALSO ADDED AHEAD OF THE LINE. AWWS
WILL BE LIKELY. PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED AT BOTH SITES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS (10Z-15Z) AS LIGHT RAINFALL TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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