098
FXUS64 KHUN 160602
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
102 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN). DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SEVERE WEATHER WAS IN PROGRESS WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE
WARNINGS (SEVERE THUNDERSTORM) IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS WAS APPROXIMATELY FROM EASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTY TN, TO GURLEY, ARAB, AND HANCEVILLE MOVING TO THE
EAST AROUND 45 MPH. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH FAR NE ALABAMA TOWARDS
2 AM. THE MAIN THREATS POSED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDES DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH, A FEW TORNADOES, AND A FEW
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, WHICH MAY HAVE
CAUSED STRUCTURE FIRES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION ALSO REPRESENTS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS INITIAL
BOUNDARY/CONVECTION HAS PASSED HAVE FALLEN NOTICEABLY. AT THE
MUSCLE SHOALS AIRPORT, THEY WERE 72 DEGREES BEFORE SHOWERS BEGAN,
NOW WERE REPORTING 53. TO OUR WEST AT IUKA, THEY WENT FROM 73 AT
9 PM TO 48 NOW. A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DROP WILL CONTINUE AS WE
GO INTO THE LATE NIGHT. READINGS AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING, ALBEIT ON A LIGHTER SCALE
AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. MANY OF THE MODELS WERE
HINTING THAT A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW REALLY SHOULD
NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF ANY. THE BLENDS NOW IN LOOK TOO WARM THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WILL TRIM THEM BACK A FEW DEGREES. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND/OR EXPOSED
SURFACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IF MODERATE TO RATES OCCUR. AM
THINKING THE WARMTH THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED UNTIL TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE, MAKING ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS A DUSTING, WITH
IT MELTING AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY.
STRONG WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. JUST GRADIENT WINDS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. PENDING A REVIEW OF NEW DATA, WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING GUSTS NEARING 35 MPH LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA AS WE GO INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE, WITH LOWS TUMBLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH IT BEING A
GOOD FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN WE HAD THE LAST FREEZING TEMPERATURES
(FEB 24TH), WE HAVE RESUMED OUR FROST/FREEZE ISSUANCE, WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE A LATE WINTER COLD SNAP. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUN,
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 40S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NOTABLY WEDNESDAY,
RISING BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST INDUCING LIGHT SW FLOW), A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A ZONE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE EAST OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM PROGRESSIVELY INTO THE U70S-L80S BY
SATURDAY, AND THIS (ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY) MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY,
DELINEATED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE
EXTENDED FROM EAST OF THA AND HSV, TO NEAR CMD MOVING EAST AT
40KT. THIS LINE SHOULD BE NEAR FAR NE ALABAMA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30KT, GUSTING TO 40KT
WERE NOTED EAST OF THE FRONT. WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WERE ALSO
ELEVATED TO 15-25KT FROM THE W-WNW, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN, POST FRONTAL RAIN MAY MIX WITH
SNOW, OR BECOME ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...RSB
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