801
FXUS64 KHUN 161044
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM TODAY FOR NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN). DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED TO THE NE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AS OF THE PREDAWN. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL KY/TN TO EAST OF NE ALABAMA, AND EAST OF MOBILE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED AS THE FRONT PASSED, FROM THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S, NOW FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NW TO NEAR 50 NE
ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH A COLDER AIRMASS HAS RETURNED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, PRECIPITATION MAY NOT QUITE BE DONE. A FEW
SURGES OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN
WILL PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TODAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD
RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW FOR A BIT. NOW THE
TOUGH PART, IF HEAVY SNOW OCCURS FOR A WHILE, IT CAN START
ACCUMULATING. BECAUSE OF RECENT WARM CONDITIONS, SNOW WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME STICKING TO EXPOSED SURFACES, BUT COULD ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
LIMIT THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW, SO IT SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY START AROUND DAYBREAK UNTIL THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
40S, THEN SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR THE "REAL"
HIGHS. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM TEMPS
ABOVE THAT.
ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN ARE THE WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
THE OLDER MOS FOR THE LAST DAY HAS BEEN HINTING THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT, SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES, PRODUCING WIND CHILLS INTO THE
20S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA AS WE GO INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE, WITH LOWS TUMBLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH IT BEING A
GOOD FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN WE HAD THE LAST FREEZING TEMPERATURES
(FEB 24TH), WE HAVE RESUMED OUR FROST/FREEZE ISSUANCE, WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE A LATE WINTER COLD SNAP. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUN,
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO GET INTO THE GROWING SEASON,
WE HAVE ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NOTABLY WED,
RISING BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (RIDGING WEST AND TROUGHING EAST)
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LOWER-48 HOWEVER SHOULD MOVE
SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE EAST. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A THE UPPER FLOW
GOING FROM NW-SE TO WNW- ESE WILL HELP WITH A WARMUP AS WE GO INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND.
ONE MORE CHILLY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOW/MID
30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MILDER,
RISING INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD RISE BACK INTO 70S FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN SPRING-LIKE WARMTH, WITH HIGHS BOTH
SAT/SUN AROUND 80, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. AND SPEAKING OF THE SPRING
SEASON, IT OFFICIALLY BEGINS AROUND 946 AM CDT FRI MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY,
DELINEATED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE
EXTENDED FROM EAST OF THA AND HSV, TO NEAR CMD MOVING EAST AT
40KT. THIS LINE SHOULD BE NEAR FAR NE ALABAMA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30KT, GUSTING TO 40KT
WERE NOTED EAST OF THE FRONT. WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WERE ALSO
ELEVATED TO 15-25KT FROM THE W-WNW, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN, POST FRONTAL RAIN MAY MIX WITH
SNOW, OR BECOME ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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