107
FXUS64 KHUN 161928
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN (TN),
JACKSON, MARSHALL, AND DEKALB.
- A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A FREEZE WARNING IN
EFFECT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE WHOLE AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY, LIFT PROMPTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING
FROM NE AL INTO NW GA. AS SUCH, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELED FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FRANKLIN (TN), JACKSON,
MARSHALL, AND DEKALB. FOR THE CANCELED COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE FORECAST. FOR NE AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY IN TERRAIN AREAS. THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
BEYOND 7 PM, WE LOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT TROUGH AND MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW, BRINGING OUR POPS DOWN TO 0%.
STRONG NW FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT CAA ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S. WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS COME TUESDAY MORNING, MAKE SURE TO DRESS
APPROPRIATELY. HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 50% CHANCE FOR A HARD
FREEZE (BELOW 23 DEGREES) IN OUR TERRAIN AREAS IN NE AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. ELSEWHERE TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 24-26
DEGREES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL NORTH
ALABAMA. MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR SW AND SLOWLY
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN
CHANCES. WITH FLOW STILL FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPS WILL
ONLY RISE FROM THE 40S ON TUESDAY TO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LOWS AGAIN BELOW 30 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE AREA. THURSDAY WILL
PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR
EAST, INDUCING SW SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT MILD WWA AND
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS LOW
70S IN OUR URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (RIDGING WEST AND TROUGHING EAST)
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LOWER-48 HOWEVER SHOULD MOVE
SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE EAST. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A THE UPPER FLOW
GOING FROM NW-SE TO WNW- ESE WILL HELP WITH A WARMUP AS WE GO INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND.
ONE MORE CHILLY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOW/MID
30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MILDER,
RISING INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD RISE BACK INTO 70S FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN SPRING-LIKE WARMTH, WITH HIGHS BOTH
SAT/SUN AROUND 80, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. AND SPEAKING OF THE SPRING
SEASON, IT OFFICIALLY BEGINS AROUND 946 AM CDT FRI MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
HEAVIER SNOW HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. VFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED
AS A RESULT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SNOWFALL MAY IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT VSBYS OR CIGS NEARLY AS
MUCH AS EARLIER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, SOME -SN AND MVFR CIGS AROUND
3000 FEET COULD OCCUR AT TIMES. EXPECT CIGS TO BREAK UP AROUND AND
AFTER 6Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ALZ008>010.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ097.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
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