969
FXUS64 KHUN 170543
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1243 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT (WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S)
AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. A
SEPARATE FREEZE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA CONTINUE TO
INDICATE BANDS OF LOWER-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (PERHAPS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES) ORIENTED IN A
NW-TO-SE FASHION ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER IN THE WAKE
OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, REMAINING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
FROM SW-TO- NE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRESUMING THAT
SKIES CLEAR PRIOR TO SUNRISE, CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
(WHICH ARE PREDICTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS) SUGGEST THAT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. ALTHOUGH WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST TX AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LESS
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUNNY SKIES, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY (U30S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN AND
M40S IN THE VALLEY).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH) WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE VEERING TO NORTH ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO EXPANSION OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DESERTS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A REMNANT ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY EVENING, BEFORE
QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE M20S-L30S
AFTER SUNSET, PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF LIGHT SSE RETURN FLOW AND A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHICH
WILL OCCUR AS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A
DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES). ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO APPEAR IN LOCAL RADAR DATA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THE SUBCLOUD
LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND FOR THIS REASON POPS WILL REMAIN
LOW. HOWEVER, A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR (ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA) LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY (RELATED TO A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE), BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH/EAST. WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
WESTERN GULF, LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WARMING TREND,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE M60S-L70S BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DEAMPLIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH WINDS ALOFT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BACK TO WNW AND DIMINISH AS
THIS OCCURS. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES IN THIS REGIME,
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT UVMS. HOWEVER, IN THE LOW-LEVELS, GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN A
MODEST S-SW FLOW REGIME, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIUNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS). TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, IT APPEARS AS IF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES, BUT MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE U70S-L80S THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ARE NOW OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HIGH CLOUDS RETURN LATE THIS AFTN
(PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST AS ~4Z). SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WNW AT 5-10 KTS, BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRBL THIS AFTN AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page