800
FXUS64 KHUN 170930
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
430 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT (WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S)
AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. A
SEPARATE FREEZE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
THIS CYCLONE IT SHOULD DEEPEN EVEN MORE, WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE FALLING BELOW 950MB BY THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
DAVIS STRAIT. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF IT HAS MOVED
EAST OF SE FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS FRONT WAS BEING PUSHED BY
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ROUNDING THE DEPARTING
CANADIAN LOW (NOTING HOW FAR IT IS LOCATED AWAY FROM HERE) WAS IN
PART HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP. THUS 4 AM AREA TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT QUITE CHILLED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED, BUT ALL WERE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING, RANGING FROM 27 AT FAYETTEVILLE, TO 32 AT SCOTTSBORO.
WINDS SHOULD SLOW DOWN MORE WITH A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK, THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO FALL MORE AT MOST SPOTS. PASSING LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO FAR NE ALABAMA SHOULD
ALSO FADE, HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO A COLDER AND FROSTY TREND.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
TO THE EAST TODAY, BEING SPRAWLED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO GULF
COAST BY THE EVENING. WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING, HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S, DESPITE A STRONG SUN ON
SAINT PATRICK'S DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW 5-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FROM
THE NNW AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH) WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE VEERING TO NORTH ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO EXPANSION OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DESERTS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A REMNANT ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY EVENING, BEFORE
QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE M20S-L30S
AFTER SUNSET, PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF LIGHT SSE RETURN FLOW AND A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHICH
WILL OCCUR AS ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A
DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES). ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO APPEAR IN LOCAL RADAR DATA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THE SUBCLOUD
LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND FOR THIS REASON POPS WILL REMAIN
LOW. HOWEVER, A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR (ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA) LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY (RELATED TO A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE), BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH/EAST. WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
WESTERN GULF, LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WARMING TREND,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE M60S-L70S BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DEAMPLIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH WINDS ALOFT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BACK TO WNW AND DIMINISH AS
THIS OCCURS. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES IN THIS REGIME,
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT UVMS. HOWEVER, IN THE LOW-LEVELS, GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN A
MODEST S-SW FLOW REGIME, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIUNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS). TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, IT APPEARS AS IF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES, BUT MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE U70S-L80S THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ARE NOW OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HIGH CLOUDS RETURN LATE THIS AFTN
(PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST AS ~4Z). SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WNW AT 5-10 KTS, BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRBL THIS AFTN AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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