942
FXUS64 KHUN 171644
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1144 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SUNNY SKIES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS AN EXTREMELY STRONG
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NNE INTO EASTERN CANADA. VERY
AMPLIFIED NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA PRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S (NE AL) TO AROUND 45
DEGREES (NW AL) DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERY DRY AIR WAS SEEN
ALOFT IN 7 AM SOUNDINGS. DESPITE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN A PORTION OF SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE
SURFACE (-20 TO -30 DEGREE CELSIUS DEWPOINTS ALOFT). THIS SHOULD
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES (AT LEAST) LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25%. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING IN
PARTICULAR (NW WINDS 5-10 MPH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH). CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME LESS BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT THICKER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT,
BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 26 TO 31 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. IF
WINDS REMAIN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING, THEN LOWS COULD
BE WARMER, BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS, A FREEZING
WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
9 AM ON WEDNESDAY. AN ESTABLISHED AND VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS (594 MB) ON
WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGERING
MUCH OF THE DAY, RETURN LOW FLOW UPSTREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP TO BRING INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN TO WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN EARNEST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. IT LOOKS
LIKE DEWPOINTS COULD BE LOWER THAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW 30
PERCENT.
ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CONTINUE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP THEN. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE AFORE-
MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LIFT LOOKS A BIT TOO WEAK
GIVEN DRYNESS IN SOUNDINGS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLIDE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME A BETTER LOW LEVEL
JET STARTS TO SETUP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 18 AND 21 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD VALUES. A FEW
MODELS HINT AT CLOUD COVER MAYBE KEEPING THIS FROM HAPPENING ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MORNING SUN AND 925 TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO
21 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, THINK EVEN CLOUD COVER MAY
NOT KEEP THIS FROM OCCURRING.
MODELS SHIFT THE FRONT SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT DUE TO SOME STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS OR MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THE FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND WEAK FORCING MAY KEEP THIS VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN
5000 AND 15,000 FEET TO MOVE INTO THE BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 4Z THIS
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AND KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT DESPITE CALM WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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