254
FXUS64 KHUN 180905
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 816 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND APPALACHIANS. IT SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD,
AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S DURING THE COURSES OF THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
STATIONS WERE REPORTING MID 30S AT 4 AM. AN ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS (CLOUD BASES ~5 TO 10KFT AGL) WERE HELPING TO KEEP EMITTING
LONG WAVE RADIATION REFLECTING BACK TO THE SURFACE, EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FOR DROPPING AS MUCH. IT'S TOUGH TO SEE HOW
MUCH MORE COVERAGE OF LOW/MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A FREEZE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA, SET TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING AT 9 AM.
OF THE FORECAST MODELS, ONLY THE FV3 WAS HINTING OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IMPACTING AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE TRENDING THAT WAY.
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER DIRECT SOLAR HEATING.
BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES
LATER TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY
AND WILL BE COMFORTABLY IN THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY DUE TO LACK OF
FORCING AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
TURN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 80S IN
SOME SPOTS SUNDAY) UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, NO
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MARCH 22ND ARE 88 DEGREES AT HSV AND 89 DEGREES AT
MSL, BOTH SET IN 1907. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. THUS, LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY TODAY. EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10KT WITH A
FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GREATER MID AND HIGHER
ALTITUDE MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
BROKEN, TO AT TIMES OVERCAST CONDITIONS FROM HIGHER ALTITUDE
CLOUDS. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page