679
FXUS64 KHUN 191640
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- WE WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (60-70%) FOR RECORD BREAKING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK, TODAY WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOMED
PATTERN CHANGE. WHILE WNW FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT, SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT WAA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE RETURN RISING OUR TEMPS BACK INTO
THE HIGH 60S/LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS TO THE MID/HIGH 40S. HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE DAY WILL MITIGATE HOW WARM WE GET.
TONIGHT, WAA WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
ENDING OUR NEAR TERM THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE
PRODUCTS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE GULF
COAST INDUCING PROLONGED SSW FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WAA
REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY HIGH 80S ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL
BE MONITORING SATURDAY FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SUMMER LIKE POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME LOW INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK
PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CREDENCE TO OUR
LOW AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR BEING A
SURFACE FEATURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHOULD WE SEE
ANY SORT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
(TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENT, OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) SOME POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN THIS IS CURRENTLY A LOW
CHANCE, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
OUR ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO SUNDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 850 AND 500 MB TEMPS
WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPS. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S. NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORT A HIGH (60-70%) CHANCE OF BREAKING LOCAL HIGH TEMP RECORDS
AT HSV (83 IN 1991) AND MSL (82 IN 2011).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS STRONG. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN
RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH, AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW PRECIP ACROSS KY/N TN. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES SHAPE BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES,
BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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