705
FXUS64 KHUN 191851
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
151 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- WE WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (60-70%) FOR RECORD BREAKING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH
UP, CURRENTLY LAGGING IN THE LOW 40S. THIS HAS KEPT RH VALUES
COMFORTABLY LOW IN THE 30-40% RANGE YET HIGH ENOUGH TO DISSUADE
ANY CONCERNS FOR ONGOING CONTROLLED BURNS. THROUGH THE NIGHT,
SURFACE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL JUMP START OUR
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA AND KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE GULF
COAST INDUCING PROLONGED SSW FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WAA
REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY HIGH 80S ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL
BE MONITORING SATURDAY FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SUMMER LIKE POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME LOW INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK
PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CREDENCE TO OUR
LOW AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR BEING A
SURFACE FEATURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHOULD WE SEE
ANY SORT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
(TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENT, OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) SOME POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN THIS IS CURRENTLY A LOW
CHANCE, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
OUR ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO SUNDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 850 AND 500 MB TEMPS
WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPS. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S. NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORT A HIGH (60-70%) CHANCE OF BREAKING LOCAL HIGH TEMP RECORDS
AT HSV (83 IN 1991) AND MSL (82 IN 2011).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS STRONG. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN
RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH, AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW PRECIP ACROSS KY/N TN. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES SHAPE BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES,
BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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