258
FXUS64 KHUN 201137
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- WE WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (60-70%) FOR RECORD BREAKING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 30-40 KNOTS EXISTS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING, A LIGHT
SSE-CALM FLOW IS SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH
TEMPS BY SUNRISE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE U30S-L40S/E TO
U40S-L50S/W (WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING DURING A BRIEF
WINDOW BETWEEN 10-13Z). AFTER SUNRISE, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE L-M 50S REGION-WIDE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE L-M 70S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE U70S-L80S IN THE
VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WITH THE ONE CAVEAT
BEING A SHORTWAVE THAT MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT NON-SEVERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE, FORCING FROM THIS
WAVE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED AT 20-30% BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY. WITH CURRENT HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S, LOCAL HIGH TEMP RECORDS AT HSV (88 IN
1907) AND MSL (89 IN 1907) MAY BE IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN IF
CURRENT TRENDS ARE TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL,
ONLY FALLING TO THE 50S SO NO CHANCE OF ANY FREEZE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
OVERALL, THERE ARE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD ASIDE FROM A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS
WON'T BRING ANY RAIN TO THE AREA, WE WILL NOTICE COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUFFICIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAY
DRIVE POPS UP IN FUTURE UPDATES. RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE
EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD (FEATURING SCT-BKN CI, AS WELL AS A
SCT CU FIELD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS). LGT SE SFC WINDS WILL
VEER TO SW AND STRENGTHEN TO 8G16 KTS BY 15Z, BEFORE SUBSIDING
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS APPEAR A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG PRIOR TO THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD EARLY SAT MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD
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