827
FXUS64 KHUN 201700
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST.
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING DEW POINTS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 50S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE WARMING TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING. HIGHS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS WELL, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S
(COMPARED TO THE 30S/40S WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS).
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF NOTE. FOR THOSE THAT
PREFER THE WARMER WEATHER, ENJOY!
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ALONG THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BULK
SHEAR VALUES SHOWN BY MODEL GUIDANCE RANGE BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH,
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND/JUST BELOW 30 KNOTS, WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER ASPECT
THAT WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS WEEKEND ARE TEMPERATURES, AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORDS TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED
(ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY). HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE RECORD MAXIMUM
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
MARCH 21ST
HUNTSVILLE: 90 DEGREES IN 1907
MUSCLE SHOALS: 86 DEGREES 1966
MARCH 22ND
HUNTSVILLE: 88 DEGREES IN 1907
MUSCLE SHOALS: 89 DEGREES IN 1907
FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY, WHICH ARE JUST SHY OF THE RECORD MAX HIGHS.
THE OTHER CAVEAT WILL BE IF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DAMPEN
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER PROBABILITY (AND
HIGHER CONFIDENCE) OF RECORDS BEING MET OR EXCEEDED IS ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AS WELL, SINCE LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. LASTLY, IT MAY BE
BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK (DISCUSSED MORE BELOW), WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
OVERALL, THERE ARE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD ASIDE FROM A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS
WON'T BRING ANY RAIN TO THE AREA, WE WILL NOTICE COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUFFICIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAY
DRIVE POPS UP IN FUTURE UPDATES. RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE
EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (PERHAPS A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD). SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL COME TONIGHT AROUND 7Z WHEN LLWS (WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 35 KNOTS) IS FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS. EXPECTING
LLWS TO END AROUND 12Z, WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26
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