365
FXUS64 KHUN 210612
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
112 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR NE AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS EVIDENT BY THE SOUTHWARD CIRRUS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOSER TO THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WARM
TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA AND THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MUCH WARMER TONIGHT, ONLY FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S. CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND TRENDS SHOW THAT PATCHY FOG REMAINS
UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE
EVENING UPDATE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE (20%) WITH THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO BEING THAT THIS ACTIVITY STAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM, AND WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
RECORDS FOR BOTH HSV (88, 1907) AND MSL (89, 1907) BUT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST TEMPS MAY NUDGE CLOSER TO THE UPPER
80S THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, AND WILL
COOL TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY
SPRING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 15MPH AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG RIDGE HOLDS A BIT
LONGER IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EAST- SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK, ALONG WITH A GROWING
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EAST INTO
THE MS AND TN VALLEYS AS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES ONE MORE OF SUMMERTIME WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ GENERATING MCSS THAT DROP
SOUTHEAST. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS, BUT
THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER MCS SOMETIME THURSDAY THAT
MAY CLIP OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, FOLLOW BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BUT IT'S
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THAT AT THIS EARLY TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY,
COOLING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE MSL/HSV TERMINALS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A BKN COVERAGE OF CS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL PERMIT STRONG
WARMING OF OUR INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO GENERATE A FEW
FAIR-WEATHER CU FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTN HOURS, TO GO ALONG
WITH SCT AC (AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW). SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW-SW WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS, AND
THIS WILL CONFINE DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG (IN THE 10-13Z TIMEFRAME)
TO WIND-PROTECTED VALLEYS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...70/DD
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