277
FXUS64 KHUN 211141
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- A WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT VARIOUS
TIMES FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
US. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW (INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES) IS PREDICTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRAVELS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NOVA SCOTIA TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, IT
WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS KY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT-
MODERATE SW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WITH A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OBSERVED, RANGING FROM THE M-U 40S IN WIND-
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST AL (WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE) TO THE M50S-L60S ELSEWHERE.
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD-
RETURNING WARM FRONT (ACROSS CENTRAL KY) LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED WELL TO OUR NORTH/EAST, AND FOR THIS
REASON WE WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A 5-10% POP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS AND A MILDER START TO THE DAY, HIGHS WILL BE 4-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY (WITH A FEW UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN NORTHWEST AL).
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM, AND WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
RECORDS FOR BOTH HSV (88, 1907) AND MSL (89, 1907) BUT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST TEMPS MAY NUDGE CLOSER TO THE UPPER
80S THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, AND WILL
COOL TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY
SPRING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 15MPH AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG RIDGE HOLDS A BIT
LONGER IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EAST- SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK, ALONG WITH A GROWING
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EAST INTO
THE MS AND TN VALLEYS AS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES ONE MORE OF SUMMERTIME WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ GENERATING MCSS THAT DROP
SOUTHEAST. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS, BUT
THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER MCS SOMETIME THURSDAY THAT
MAY CLIP OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, FOLLOW BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BUT IT'S
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THAT AT THIS EARLY TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY,
COOLING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TWO TERMINALS
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A FEW-SCT COVERAGE OF CI, A
SIMILAR COVERAGE OF FAIR-WEATHER CU AND AC ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTN. OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG (IF WINDS RELAX) AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW
STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SSW-SW WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...70/DD
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