940
FXUS64 KHUN 211908
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- THE WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT VARIOUS
TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH HIGHS STILL
ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS
FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR AT
PRESENT TO OUR NORTH OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE (ROUGHLY WHERE
THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED). OVERALL, STILL THINKING THAT, WHILE
THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON, MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND A
SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(SURFACE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER WAVE) IS THEREFORE
FARTHER NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG, MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN
30 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY. ALTHOUGH, A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
(VERY LOW CHANCES, LESS THAN 10%). EVEN SO, IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THOSE THAT ENJOY THE
WARMER WEATHER! FORECAST HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS TONIGHT MERELY DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE WILL BE WATCHING HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY APPROACH AND/OR MEET RECORD HIGHS.
FOR TODAY, WE MAY GET CLOSE IN MUSCLE SHOALS, WITH FORECAST VALUES
AROUND 84-85 DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 90 DEGREES (IN
1907) FOR HUNTSVILLE AND 86 DEGREES (IN 1966) FOR MUSCLE SHOALS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS
REALIZED WITH THIS BOUNDARY, SINCE THAT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. FOR NOW,
BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5% CHANCE) OF
RAIN ON MONDAY. BUT, OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES PWATS WILL BE IN THE
1.10-1.20 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
FRONT MAY NOT BE A "DRY" FRONT WITH NO RAIN CHANCES, BUT ACTUALLY
RESULT IN SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE MONITORED; BUT,
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE IN KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ASPECT WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IS THE HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED ON SUNDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S; HOWEVER,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR US TO WARM A BIT MORE AND MEET/EXCEED
THOSE RECORD HIGHS (88 DEGREES FOR HUNTSVILLE AND 89 DEGREES IN
MUSCLE SHOALS, BOTH IN 1907). THIS IS DUE TO DECENT WAA FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES. ALTHOUGH, IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 18-25
MPH. THESE WINDS LOOK TO THEN SLACKEN SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LASTLY, EXPECT LOWS ON SUNDAY TO ALSO BE
WARM, WITH VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WITH FROPA
ON MONDAY, IT'LL BE A TOUCH COOLER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG RIDGE HOLDS A BIT
LONGER IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EAST- SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK, ALONG WITH A GROWING
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EAST INTO
THE MS AND TN VALLEYS AS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES ONE MORE OF SUMMERTIME WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ GENERATING MCSS THAT DROP
SOUTHEAST. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS, BUT
THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER MCS SOMETIME THURSDAY THAT
MAY CLIP OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, FOLLOW BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BUT IT'S
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THAT AT THIS EARLY TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY,
COOLING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT THESE
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. THEN, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26
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