222
FXUS64 KHUN 110136
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
836 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 837 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- WARM TEMPS, LOW RH, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER FAVORABLE NIGHT
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW
50S, THE LAST BIT OF SPRING LIKE LOWS BEFORE WE ENTER A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING PATTERN.
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
LOCALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PROMPT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL IMMEDIATELY BE FELT ON
SATURDAY AS HIGHS SURGE INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REBOUND YET SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
TEMPERATURES. BY THE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS LOOK TO REACH THE HIGH
40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL PUT RH VALUES NEAR CRITICAL INDICES
(25-35%) FOR FIRE WEATHER, YET WINDS WILL FORTUNATELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT, MITIGATING THE OVERALL THREAT DESPITE THE DRYNESS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP VIA A TROUGH WEST / RIDGING EAST SET UP. WE WILL BE
UNDER THE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE PORTION OF THE PATTERN. THIS
WILL PLACE US SOLIDLY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, MAINTAINING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
PAIRED WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS WILL PROMPT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A HIGH (60-80%) CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS OF 20+ MPH. WITH THE NICC ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY AS A
HIGH RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL, RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR WHEN LOOKING AT ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT ISSUANCE
FOR SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
INDICES (25%) BUT DO SHOW CONCERNINGLY LOW VALUES NEAR 30% ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT CONCERN IS CAPTURED BY THE
ENSEMBLES SHOWING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS WOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP BELOW OUR CURRENT
FORECAST AND DROP RH NEAR AND BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. THIS IS
SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON AND MAKE EDITS
TO THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY, ALLOWING RH TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. WHILE NUMERICALLY THIS WILL KEEP US
AWAY FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, WITHOUT ANY CHANGE IN
WINDS, TEMPS, OR PRECIP, PLEASE USE CONTINUED CAUTION WITH
ANYTHING THAT COULD CAUSE A SPARK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DEWPOINTS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE UPPER
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR REFERENCE, OUR TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST, BUT LATEST ENSEMBLES KEEP ALL
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-15%) OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. REGARDLESS, THIS VERY LIMITED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BARELY PUT A DENT INTO THE RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE/HIGH RISK FOR MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 18-20. THEREFORE, THERE IS A
50-70% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 85-90 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RAD
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