450
FXUS64 KHUN 111611
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1111 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY FROM 11AM THROUGH 7PM.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH, DRAPED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
AND UP INTO NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE, HAS MANAGED TO PRODUCE VERY
LIGHT AND SPORADIC SHOWERS SO FAR TODAY. EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THIS
IS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE, PROVIDING ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO HINDER MOST PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TODAY.
THEREFORE, CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%) OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S LATER
TONIGHT. OVERALL, ENJOY YOUR SATURDAY, BUT MAKE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE! ALSO, WITH IT BEING SO DRY, WE
URGE EVERYONE TO BE CAUTIOUS WHEN IT COMES TO BURNING. WHILE
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY, THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY MAY BRING LOW CHANCES
(10-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTHWEST,
WITH MOST OF OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH
WARMER THAN MONDAY. IT'LL BE A BIT WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAIN
RECENTLY, SO OUR FUELS ARE DRY. FURTHERMORE, OUR FORECAST
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER
20 TO LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE (RHS DOWN TO AROUND 25% MAY EVEN BE
REALIZED) AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE ALSO OUTLOOKED BY THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER
IN A HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL. THIS MEANS THAT
THERE IS AN "ELEVATED RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING FIRES." ULTIMATELY, WE
ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING, SINCE
CRITERIA ARE VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE'VE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTH ALABAMA FROM 11AM THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY. WE URGE EVERYONE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION AND REFRAIN FROM BURNING THIS WEEKEND, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. PLEASE OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS THAT ARE IN
PLACE!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DEWPOINTS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE UPPER
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR REFERENCE, OUR TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST, BUT LATEST ENSEMBLES KEEP ALL
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-15%) OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. REGARDLESS, THIS VERY LIMITED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BARELY PUT A DENT INTO THE RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE/HIGH RISK FOR MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 18-20. THEREFORE, THERE IS A
50-70% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 85-90 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ001>010-014-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...HC
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