819
FXUS64 KHUN 120608
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
108 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR DANGEROUS OUTDOOR FIRE CONDITIONS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE PREVIOUS AFD REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS STILL SET TO BEGIN AT 11 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 7 PM. BE SURE TO AVOID LEAVING OUTDOOR FLAMES UNATTENDED
AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE AROUND DRY FUELS SUCH AS GRASS AND BRUSH.
PREVIOUS AFD:
PLEASANT NIGHT AHEAD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND SLIDE THROUGH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S,
RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
TOMORROW, THE WEATHER MESSAGE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. IN THE PAST MONTH, WE HAVE ONLY HAD 6 DAYS OF MEASURABLE
RAIN AT HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT, WHICH HAS PLACED US IN A DROUGHT LEVEL
1 OF 4 AND NO ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL FALL TOMORROW. SO WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY ON HAND, WINDS WILL BE NEAR GUSTING 15-20 MPH,
AND RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING
TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS, SO ADJUSTED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. WE MAY BE
JUST A TAD BELOW OFFICIAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, BUT WE ARE ALSO
OUTLOOKED BY THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER IN A
HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS
AN "ELEVATED RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING FIRES." TAKING ALL OF THIS
INTO CONSIDERATION, WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 16-00Z. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM BURNING
TOMORROW AND OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SSE THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER A ROUND OF DISTURBANCES
RIDE UP ITS WESTERN SIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THIS WILL HELP THE
DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND THE MID 80S ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN MID APRIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY AS RH
VALUES DIP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 30% IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK JUST IN CASE CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER WAVE
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE
(10-30%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERY LIMITED OVER THE TN VALLEY
AND LIKELY WON'T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EVEN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR AS TEMPS RISE NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR HEAT INDICES BUT SHOULD STILL
BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AS HEAT RELATED ILLNESS CAN STILL OCCUR AT THESE
TEMPERATURES WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION AND COOLING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15-18 KTS. AN AMD NOT SKED LINE WAS ADDED TO KMSL DUE TO THE
WIND SENSOR BEING DOWN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-014-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...HC
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