842
FXUS64 KHUN 141028
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
528 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, SAVE FOR A FEW BANDS
OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION, A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
TODAY, REINFORCING THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW RECORD HIGHS AT HSV AND MSL (89 DEGREES IN 2017 AND 1936
RESPECTIVELY). THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL KNOCK MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER AND IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE, BUT A
FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 15 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE VERY DRY FUELS, THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION CONTINUES TO BE URGED.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN THEIR HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND BRING MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
LOCAL AREA, MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND UP INTO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL TRAVEL AND WHERE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. AS FOR THE MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL, LOOKING PROBABILISTICALLY, THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR AREAS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WEST
OF I-65 IN ALABAMA TO RECEIVE GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN THURSDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST HAVE AN EVEN LESSER
CHANCE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE RECEIVE MUCH
RAINFALL AT ALL ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE OUR ONLY
CHANCE AT RAIN THIS WEEK. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THIS NEXT
WEEKEND, SO STAY TUNED AND READ MORE BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
TAKING A LOOK AT RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 15TH TO PROVIDE
SOME CONTEXT, THE RECORD HIGHS ARE 88 DEGREES FOR HUNTSVILLE AND
89 DEGREES AT MUSCLE SHOALS (BOTH SET IN 2006). KEEP THAT IN MIND
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON WEDNESDAY AND REMEMBER HEAT
SAFETY! DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
SHADE!
BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT, THE DRY CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH.
THEREFORE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST. PLEASE BE
CAUTIOUS AS ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE RAPIDLY
THAN EXPECTED!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS, AS A 500-MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ANTICIPATED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
MID- LEVEL INVERSION AND LIGHT SSW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A DEEPENING VORT
MAX (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS) BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MO VALLEY, RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL WAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM KS INTO WI BY 12Z
SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BOTH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION AS
THEY PROGRESS FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OT/WESTERN QC BY
12Z SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH (FROM IL/IN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST) SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING, CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS (RANGING FROM
AROUND 0.05-0.10" AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO TO 0.5-0.75" AS A BEST
CASE SCENARIO). THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LINGERING CINH NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND A NARROW PLUME OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WHICH WILL ONLY
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
SHOULD THE LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IMPROVE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE BEST CASE SCENARIO, AND A
FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE
PROBABLE GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT (45-55 KNOTS)
FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. A COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, FEATURING HIGHS IN THE
U60S-L70S SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 40S MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SSW/SW THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP.24
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