887
FXUS64 KHUN 141510
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1010 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH RIDGING EAST AND
TROUGHING WEST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
GA/FL STATE LINE WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER 50S DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN NE AL. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S, THIS WOULD
DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH. GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS, THIS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION
CONTINUES TO BE URGED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOCALLY, NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN
STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN FACTOR IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. ONE THING TO WATCH
IS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT PUT MUCH OF A DENT INTO OUR DEFICIT THIS
SPRING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS, AS A 500-MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ANTICIPATED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
MID- LEVEL INVERSION AND LIGHT SSW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A DEEPENING VORT
MAX (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS) BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MO VALLEY, RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL WAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM KS INTO WI BY 12Z
SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BOTH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION AS
THEY PROGRESS FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OT/WESTERN QC BY
12Z SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH (FROM IL/IN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST) SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING, CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS (RANGING FROM
AROUND 0.05-0.10" AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO TO 0.5-0.75" AS A BEST
CASE SCENARIO). THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LINGERING CINH NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND A NARROW PLUME OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WHICH WILL ONLY
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
SHOULD THE LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IMPROVE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE BEST CASE SCENARIO, AND A
FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE
PROBABLE GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT (45-55 KNOTS)
FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. A COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, FEATURING HIGHS IN THE
U60S-L70S SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 40S MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SSW/SW THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP
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