889
FXUS64 KHUN 142305
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A LINE OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHWEST AL ALL DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. THIS HASN'T PREVENTED TEMPS FROM WARMING UP INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THANKS TO WAA FROM BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS HAVE BEEN REACHING 15-20KTS, BUT KEEPING BELOW 25KTS
(A RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLD). RH VALUES ARE ALSO REMAINING OUT
OF RFW CRITERIA , GENERALLY AROUND 30%. REGARDLESS, WITH
CONDITIONS SO DRY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, ENSURE YOU ARE FIRE SMART
AND CAUTION CONTINUES TO BE EMPHASIZED. GUSTS WILL SLACK AFTER
SUNSET AND UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOCALLY, NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN
STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN FACTOR IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. ONE THING TO WATCH
IS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT PUT MUCH OF A DENT INTO OUR DEFICIT THIS
SPRING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS, AS A 500-MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ANTICIPATED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
MID- LEVEL INVERSION AND LIGHT SSW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A DEEPENING VORT
MAX (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS) BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MO VALLEY, RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL WAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM KS INTO WI BY 12Z
SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BOTH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION AS
THEY PROGRESS FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OT/WESTERN QC BY
12Z SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH (FROM IL/IN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST) SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING, CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS (RANGING FROM
AROUND 0.05-0.10" AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO TO 0.5-0.75" AS A BEST
CASE SCENARIO). THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LINGERING CINH NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND A NARROW PLUME OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WHICH WILL ONLY
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
SHOULD THE LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IMPROVE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE BEST CASE SCENARIO, AND A
FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE
PROBABLE GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT (45-55 KNOTS)
FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. A COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, FEATURING HIGHS IN THE
U60S-L70S SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 40S MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS (SUSTAINED) WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page