598
FXUS64 KHUN 150527
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A TRANQUIL
FORECAST WITH NO RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE A BIT TOO DRY FOR MUCH FOG TO FORM. IT'LL ALSO BE FAIRLY
WARM THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN, AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IS THEN ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEW POINTS SHOULD
DIP INTO THE 40S/50S (LOWEST OVER NE AL) BY THE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER 30
PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS AS ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPECTED!
IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AS FORECAST HIGHS TOP OUT IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR CONTEXT, THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
APRIL 15TH ARE 88 DEGREES IN HUNTSVILLE AND 89 DEGREES IN MUSCLE
SHOALS (BOTH SET IN 2006). FURTHERMORE, OUR FORECAST HIGHS ARE AT
LEAST TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE,
ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT "SUMMERTIME HEAT", IT WILL BE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS
IN THE SHADE IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD LATER ON WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FORMING AND MOVING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHORTWAVES ON FRIDAY.
ULTIMATELY, WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NW
AL. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE BEEN ALLUDING TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED (LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH). ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THERE WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 80-90
KNOT UPPER JET ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS
AMPLE BULK SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A
DECENT CAP (CIN) OVER OUR AREA. THEREFORE, ANTICIPATING ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO BE SUB-SEVERE. DRY WEATHER (NO RAIN) WILL THEN
RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY. THESE FORECAST HIGHS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR
APRIL 17TH (90 DEGREES FOR HUNTSVILLE, 92 DEGREES FOR MUSCLE
SHOALS; BOTH IN 2006). IT'LL ALSO BE WARM AT NIGHT, WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT SUMMERTIME YET, IT'S
STILL IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER HEAT SAFETY AS THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WORK OUTSIDE, MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
LAKE MI INTO THE JAMES BAY VICINITY ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE (EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS). STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE CYCLONES WARM SECTOR, AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER WARM DAY
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR OUR REGION. LATEST EXTENDED
RANGE MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID-DAY NEAR A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KY INTO NORTHERN MS, AND ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWFA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS AS IF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A LAYER OF
WARM/STABLE AIR ALOFT (ROOTED AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL) FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY EVENING AS A
NARROW AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 60S SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING 500-MB TROUGH. SHOULD AN UPDRAFT BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY TALL TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL BE
INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS, BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, WE EXPECT GENERALLY WEAK/LOW- TOPPED
CONVECTION, FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT POSTFRONTAL
RAIN, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.25" (SE) TO
0.5-0.75" (NW).
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS ADVECTING A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE M-U 60S (EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE), FOLLOWED BY COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 40S. PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE
EAST OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. REGARDLESS, THE ONSET OF SE
RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SSW/SW THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS, BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP.24
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