463
FXUS64 KHUN 160339
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY (MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING). A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- THERE IS A HIGH (60-80%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MO
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A
DAMPENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
HOWEVER, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH, SUBTLE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SECONDARY 500-MB WAVE IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR AS
IT LIFTS EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE (RELATED TO THE NORTHERN TROUGH) SHOULD REACH LAKE MI BY
12Z THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING FURTHER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN QC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 0Z FRIDAY.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH MODEST ELEVATED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 20-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN (MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
LIGHT SSW WIND AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT,
FEATURING LOWS RANGING FROM THE M-U 50S (NORTHEAST AL) TO THE L-M
60S (ELSEWHERE).
PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW MORNING, AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SPREADS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A DIMINISHING AREA OF RAIN
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BEGINNING EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH (OR PERHAPS A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY) EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, WARRANTING A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM 10-20%/SE TO
40-50%/NW. HOWEVER, WITH CAPE REACHING 500-750 J/KG AS TEMPS RISE
INTO THE L-M 80S AND WSW FLOW ALOFT OF 45-50 KNOTS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, A FEW CELLS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH MAY
OCCUR.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM WESTERN AR INTO
SOUTHERN MO). AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL WAVE, THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE
INTO A SMALL BUT SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT
SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER TOMORROW EVENING AS IT
BECOMES DISPLACED FROM THE INITIATING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OUR CWFA, A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AL). OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS THAT ARE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE U50S-L60S.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (FROM EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR) IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WITH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY,
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE M-U 80S, WHICH MAY FALL JUST
SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
L-M 60S SATURDAY MORNING.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STEADY
DEEPENING OF THE RELATED SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OT AND INTO NORTHERN QC BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD, LIKELY REACHING
NORTHWESTERN AL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITING OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND A LINGERING LAYER OF STABLE AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH MID-LEVEL WSW FLOW PREDICTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 50-60 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY EVENING, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A
CONCERN ACROSS NORTHWEST AL WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO ADVECT A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY.
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT A
FEW SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ARE SHOWN TO DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY
MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THE EASTERN CONUS UNTIL IT IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK BY A SYSTEM SWEEPING OVER CANADA.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY (DISCUSSED ABOVE), BUT MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY, AS SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
(ALBEIT LOW PROBABILITY) FOR THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES TO
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES, BUT STAY TUNED!
DON'T PACK THOSE JACKETS AWAY FOR THE SEASON JUST YET, SINCE IT
WILL BE FAIRLY COOL TO START THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND WESTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT! MONDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S THAT NIGHT. FORTUNATELY OR UNFORTUNATELY
(DEPENDING ON IF YOU LIKE OR DISLIKE COOLER WEATHER), TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION (RELATED TO A 20-25 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET)
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING. A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH (EXTENDING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z, AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHRA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT, THE RISK FOR TSRA APPEARS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, BUT A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM
13-18Z/MSL AND 14-19Z/HSV TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR VSBY
REDUCTIONS WITHIN THE LGT PRECIPITATION. PARTIAL CLEARING MAY
OCCUR TOMORROW AFTN IN THE WAKE OF MORNING RAINFALL, WITH SFC
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SSW AT A PREVAILING SPEED OF
5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...70/DD
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