887
FXUS64 KHUN 162024
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- THERE IS A HIGH (60-85%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A LOW RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
FORM WEST OF OUR AREA AND TRACK SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED DEPICTING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHICH HAS LED TO CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OVERALL. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH
THIS EVENING WILL BE FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WHERE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AS
MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT BECOMES MORE LIMITED IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY TO DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLOUDS CLEAR THE AREA AND WINDS CALM. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TODAY WILL FEATURE OUR FIRST SHOT AT RAIN IN 11 DAYS AS AN UPPER
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A SHRINKING, NARROW
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO
WESTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY WINDS
VEERING FROM THE SW TO W. LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE WATCHING
FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN TN THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTH, CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTH AL. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OVERALL INTENSITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN FACT,
THESE STORMS COULD DISSIPATE AFTER NEARING THE AL/TN STATE LINE
AND UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF NORTH AL COULD MISS OUT ON ANY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO
BE BETWEEN 7PM AND MIDNIGHT, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE AS WE EVALUATE NEAR TERM TRENDS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY AND HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORDS WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 89
AT HSV (90/2006) AND 89 AT MSL (92/2006). A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY FOR US THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THE TN VALLEY SHOWING A PRETTY STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN (70-85%) SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.6" OVER NW AL TO 0.3" IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AL. THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO THE
MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY.
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT A
FEW SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ARE SHOWN TO DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY
MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THE EASTERN CONUS UNTIL IT IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK BY A SYSTEM SWEEPING OVER CANADA.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY (DISCUSSED ABOVE), BUT MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY, AS SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
(ALBEIT LOW PROBABILITY) FOR THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES TO
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES, BUT STAY TUNED!
DON'T PACK THOSE JACKETS AWAY FOR THE SEASON JUST YET, SINCE IT
WILL BE FAIRLY COOL TO START THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND WESTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT! MONDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S THAT NIGHT. FORTUNATELY OR UNFORTUNATELY
(DEPENDING ON IF YOU LIKE OR DISLIKE COOLER WEATHER), TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AS BREEZY WINDS VEER FROM
THE SW TO W THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS, BUT MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT MSL
THAN HSV. WENT WITH VCSH FROM 23-02Z AT MSL, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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