317
FXUS64 KHUN 170317
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- A LOW (20%) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE (MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER) THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING.
- THERE IS A HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-SOUTH REGION) WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
12Z FRIDAY, WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHERN QC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND) HAS
CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(PRESENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS), WHILE TO THE WEST
OF THIS FEATURE, WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHERN MS/AL IS INITIATING NEW
BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED UPDRAFTS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THE
PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND FAR
NORTHEAST AL, RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT
THEY WILL BE MUCH LOWER TO THE WEST. AS FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF THE TN
RIVER THROUGH 4-6Z, WHICH IS WHEN BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500-MB TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
(UP TO 50 MPH) AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH CORES REACHING UP TO
19-20 KFT.
OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT TO SEE DISSIPATION OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WHICH (ALONG WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE-CALM WINDS) MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF PATCHY MIST
AND FOG, AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE U50S-L60S. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A CONCERN IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESUME AS AN INTENSIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SK/MB AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, FORCING A SURFACE LOW TO EJECT FROM EASTERN NE INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH CAMS INDICATE THAT A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN TN, A DEVELOPING
LAYER OF WARM/STABLE AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY,
AND WARM CONDITIONS LOCALLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S (POSSIBLY
APPROACHING RECORDS FOR HSV/MSL).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA STILL INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BOTH DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AS
THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY
BY 12Z SUNDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO SURGE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWFA BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT (FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD) WILL
UNDERGO A WEAKENING PHASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, REINVIGORATION
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE WIND SHIFT ENTERS OUR REGION. THE RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE COMBINATION OF
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND INCREASING BROAD
SCALE LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE LINGERING CINH. IF IT IS
NOT, THE FRONT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT CONVECTION,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, IF IT IS, MID-LEVEL WSW
FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING INTO THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE AND COULD
SUPPORT SOME INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND AND SMALL HAIL (PARTICULARLY
AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST AL). REGARDLESS OF SCENARIO, THE
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING (EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT), WITH
LIGHT POSTFRONTAL RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SUNRISE. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM ~0.75"/NW TO ~0.25"/SE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT A COOLER/DRIER MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND NORTH PACIFIC AIR
INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
(ELEVATED TERRAIN) TO M-U 60S (ELSEWHERE) EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE, MAKING FOR A COOL NIGHT FEATURING LOWS IN THE
L-M 40S MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL FORM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE WILL
BRING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE THEME OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE, OTHER THAN PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS AROUND MIDWEEK, NO RAIN IS FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MILD, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL THEN DIP INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
HIGH-BASED CU WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SHRA MAY STILL OCCUR INVOF A
SFC TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST AL WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
HAVE AN IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL. LATER THIS EVENING, WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
COMPLEX OF TSRA (CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KY/NORTHWESTERN
TN). SHOULD A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA, A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA MAY OCCUR BUT AT THIS
POINT PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS AND WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN ATTM. OTHERWISE,
LGT/VRBL-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG EARLY FRI MORNING, BUT GIVEN LACK OF
RAINFALL TODAY WE WILL WAIT TO INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT THE
AIRPORTS. STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT HIGH-
BASED CU BY 15Z, WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 10 KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...70/DD
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