650
FXUS64 KHUN 191649
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TODAY, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
30 MPH MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
STRETCHES ALONG THE FAR EAST COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SSW INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT A NEED HALF OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME HEAVIER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES NOT BREAK THE DROUGHT
(STILL IN A MODERATE DROUGHT OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA).
HOWEVER, IT DOES HELP EASE THESE CONDITIONS SOME.
PESKY CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA BEHIND
THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF CULLMAN COUNTY
AFTER 1 PM. HOWEVER, UNTIL THEN THEY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST.
THESE CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE THE 59 TO 66 DEGREE
RANGE (10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - TYPICALLY AROUND 75
DEGREES). IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA.
EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA HOWEVER
LOOKS TO WEAKLY ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO COUNTER VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO ACTUAL DEWPOINTS VALUES (WHICH
SHOULD BE LOWER). THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW
THE 39 TO 40 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN FACT, THIS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS LOOKS TO
BE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA, PARTICULARLY
DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. THERE LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE 37 TO
40 DEGREE RANGE. THOUGH THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FROST,
WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AREA ON MONDAY. STILL EXPECTING NORTHWEST FLOW TO BE
THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
SUNNY SKIES THOUGH FROM THE START OF THE DAY WILL HELP TO COUNTER
COLD AIR ADVECTION SOME THOUGH. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB HIGHER IN
RESPONSE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
TEXAS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN
EXTENDING SSW FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
NORTHWEST FLOW LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE, BUT STILL PUSHES THIS FRONT
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN TEXAS HELP TO BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY THIN, BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY WILL HELP TO TAMP DOWN HIGHS A TAD ON TUESDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, IT WILL STILL BE WARMER, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL HELP LOW TEMPERATURES TO START OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO BETWEEN 75 AND 80
DEGREES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN TEXAS ESE AND AWAY FROM
NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO WEDNESDAY. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER CLIMBING INTO THE 78 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
WILL TEAM UP WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR OUR WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY SEEMS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN NW
ALABAMA. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, 925 MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18 AND 21 DEGREES COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 80
TO 85 DEGREE RANGE ONE MORE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOMETIME SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GOOD SHEAR AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
COULD COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV AND KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING, BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER TAF SITE IS NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS ABATING ~00Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KDW
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