083
FXUS64 KHUN 200157
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
857 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EAST, PLACING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SQUARELY OVER THE TN
VALLEY. TONIGHT, THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND SUPPRESS WINDS,
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S IN TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS WILL
MERGE WITH THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURES KEEPING HIGHS REFINED TO THE MID 70S. WITHOUT ANY
AIRMASS CHANGE, DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MIN RH NEAR 30%
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
DECREASING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO EAST
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LOCALLY INDUCE A RETURN FLOW
PATTERN AND JUMP START A WAA REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REBOUNDING INTO THE HIGH 40S.
ALOFT, A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS
AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COME WEDNESDAY,
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH TO ILLICIT ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS AND PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE SE, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
REDEVELOP, AIDING IN CLEARING SKIES BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY AHEAD OF A
PATTERN SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
GA/SC, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOCALLY, THIS RESULTS IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO A MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RISE INTO THE MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING FROM THE LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY TO LOWER 60S
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE DRY PATTERN COMES TO AN END BY THIS WEEKEND
AS TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST OF
THESE DISTURBANCES ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE (45-65%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE STORMS. JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS AND CAPE EXCEEDING 1000
J/KG HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
ALGORITHMS ALSO SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN AN EXACT TIMEFRAME OF THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 6-7 DAYS OUT. HOWEVER,
IT IS APRIL AND THIS IS TYPICALLY ONE OF OUR MOST ACTIVE MONTHS FOR
SEVERE STORMS. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND
STORM BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RAD
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