903
FXUS64 KHUN 201142
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE
PREVAILED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS HAS CREATED AN IDEAL SCENARIO
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 2 AM. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE, BE SURE TO GRAB A JACKET BEFORE HEADING
OUT THE DOOR.
THROUGH THE DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TN
VALLEY MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS
CHANGE, TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM TODAY, ONLY WARMING TO THE MID
70S BY THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO REBOUND
RESULTING IN MIN RH AROUND 30% THIS AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO DISSUADE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO EAST
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LOCALLY INDUCE A RETURN FLOW
PATTERN AND JUMP START A WAA REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REBOUNDING INTO THE HIGH 40S.
ALOFT, A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS
AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COME WEDNESDAY,
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH TO ILLICIT ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS AND PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE SE, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
REDEVELOP, AIDING IN CLEARING SKIES BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY AHEAD OF A
PATTERN SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS GA/SC, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOCALLY, THIS RESULTS IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO A MUCH MORE
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY RISE INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY TO LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE DRY
PATTERN COMES TO AN END BY THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING TO OUR WEST
SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARRIVES
FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE
(45-65%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE STORMS. JOINT PROBABILITIES
OF SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS AND CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
ALGORITHMS ALSO SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN AN EXACT TIMEFRAME OF THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 6-7 DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER, IT IS APRIL AND THIS IS TYPICALLY ONE OF OUR MOST ACTIVE
MONTHS FOR SEVERE STORMS. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS DETAILS FOR
THE WEEKEND BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A FEW FAIR-WEATHER CU
MAY DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. SFC
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM WNW AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO
LGT/VRBL-CALM AT NIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL INDEED BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 8-12Z TUESDAY,
WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...GH
AVIATION...70/DD
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