406
FXUS64 KHUN 281800
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
NOW EXPECTING AN EARLIER TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR STORMS.
- ANOTHER HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MAINLY PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, ONLY LINGERING IN CULLMAN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME. FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL
CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS (SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES) WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THIS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO OUR DROUGHT STRUCK
AREA. SO FAR, MOST OF US HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL WITH SPOTS OF 1.5-2" IN PARTS OF MADISON, JACKSON,
CULLMAN CO, AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
SO, REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOW LOOKS TO BE STARTING 4-5PM
IN NW AL AND EXITING NE AL BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE IT GETS HUNG UP.
ONCE THIS MORNING CONVECTION SLIDES OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEFORE SOME
SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO PEEK OUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
STRETCHED FROM THE OH VALLEY, TO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND INTO OK/AR,
TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. AHEAD OF IT, EXPECTING A MCS TO DEVELOP
AND LIFT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, BUT SHOULD FORCE THE MCS TO SLIDE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD,
BRUSHING PORTIONS OF NW AL AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOW MORE OF A WIND THREAT, WITH
A LOWER THREAT FOR HAIL AND TORNADOES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SITS
AT 2-3"/HR SO THERE IS NO MAJOR CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING,
HOWEVER NUISANCE LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR. WITH THIS
EXPECTED EARLIER ARRIVAL, WE WILL NOT GET SUPPORT FROM THE LLJ, OR
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MORE
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DECREASING THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS.
THERE IS HOWEVER, A CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAKE
LOW THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH, MAYBE UP TO 50MPH. AGAIN,
MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR ALL OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOW LOOKS TO BE
STARTING 4-5PM IN NW AL AND EXITING NE AL BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
LINGERING RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TRUE NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO SLACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING THE
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20MPH TO BE MORE 5-7KTS IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, REACHING THE UPPER
70S. WON'T FEEL THE COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS REACH
THE LOWER 50S. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT
THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AND COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PLACING THE TN VALLEY IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF
CIN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW FOR NOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1" FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ON PAR WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THIS WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR RISES ON
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S-70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THAT IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
TIMING. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED AS STORMS REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...JMS
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