620
FXUS64 KHUN 281929
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
229 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
NOW EXPECTING AN EARLIER TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR STORMS.
- ANOTHER HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY
THAT BROUGHT US SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS DRIFTED
INTO CENTRAL AL, KEEPING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS PERSIST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
GUSTING UP TO 20KTS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED UP IN AR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND HELP LIFT THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD. WHAT WE ARE STILL WATCHING IS WHEN AND WHERE THOSE
TWO THINGS INTERSECT. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF THE
STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HIGH RES MODELS STILL SHOW THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING PRETTY
SOUTHEASTERLY IN MS, ALLOWING FOR THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO EFFECT NW AL AND PORTIONS SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL,
AND A LOW TORNADO THREAT. WE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-3" OF RAINFALL
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH ONLY UP TO ANOTHER 1"
TONIGHT, NO MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED BEYOND NUISANCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES ON SOME RIVERS/CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A WAKE LOW EVENT THIS EVENING WHERE GUSTY
NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH, MAYBE 50MPH, ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER REAL TIME
RADAR AND FORECAST MODELS TRENDS NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SOME
HIGH-RES MODELS WANT TO IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT LINGERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
LINGERING RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TRUE NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO SLACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING THE
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20MPH TO BE MORE 5-7KTS IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, REACHING THE UPPER
70S. WON'T FEEL THE COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS REACH
THE LOWER 50S. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT
THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AND COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PLACING THE TN VALLEY IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF
CIN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW FOR NOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1" FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ON PAR WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THIS WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR RISES ON
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S-70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THAT IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
TIMING. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE SHORTLY THEREAFTER FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED AS STORMS REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...JMS
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