744
FXUS64 KHUN 290513
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1213 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A BROADER POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH
ACROSS ONTARIO. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY,
DRAWING A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAN AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION (WHICH EVOLVED
EARLIER TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST AL,
WITH ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD (IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAME BOUNDARY) FROM
NORTHERN AR THROUGH WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS AND INTO THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45 KNOTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY
WITH THE WARM FRONT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT AS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND DIMINISHING CAPE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SPITE OF 45-55 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT
DRY ADVECTION WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS,
WE EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
AXIS. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS) WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE M-U
70S IN THE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD A POSITIVE-TILT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH (INITIALLY ACROSS ONTARIO) WILL DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CONFIGURATION
WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF STRONG (45-55 KNOT) WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW PREDICTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD AXIS OF
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOMORROW. ANAFRONTAL RAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH (AND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO ITS SOUTH) WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA (SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER) FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS A
DEEPENING LAYER OF NNE FLOW AND COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.
PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE
MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
RESULTING IN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT VORTICITY LOBE (ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC) WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY (THAT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY 12Z SATURDAY). AS THIS OCCURS,
ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION (INITIALLY OCCURRING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) WILL EXPAND QUICKLY
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, PERHAPS
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 50S
ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE M-U 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A STRONGER/REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL FALL MORE NOTABLY INTO THE U60S-L70S ON THURSDAY AND
FURTHER INTO THE M-U 60S ON FRIDAY AS SKIES BECOME OVERCAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOL RAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF
A SURFACE LOW (ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS) WILL END ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S (FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS IN THE M60S-L70S LATER ON
SUNDAY). SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE M-U 70S BY TUESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED IN THIS REGIME,
BUT SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY TUESDAY, WARRANTING VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE WILL LOWER VISIBILITY AND KEEP CLOUD HEIGHTS
BELOW FUEL ALTERNATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING IN ITS WAKE LIGHT RAIN, BUT THE LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. NBM GUIDANCE IS GIVING A
LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS SCATTERING OUT THE MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE NW WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 15 TO 20 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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